老年人群全因死亡预测模型综述  

A review of all-cause mortality prediction models in the older adults

作　　者：李园园 刘晓红 Li Yuanyuan;Liu Xiaohong(Department of Geriatrics,Peking Union Medical College,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Peking Union Medical College Hospital,Beijing 100730,China)

机构地区：[1]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院老年医学科,北京100730

出　　处：《中国临床保健杂志》2023年第4期568-573,共6页Chinese Journal of Clinical Healthcare

基　　金：北京协和医院中央高水平医院临床科研专项(2022-PUMCH-B-132)。

摘　　要：优化老年人的医护照料方案是复杂的,必须考虑个人的预后。有效的死亡风险预测模型可以评估预后,为治疗决策提供重要信息,确定获益最大的诊疗方案,并为医患共同决策提供基础,是帮助临床决策的重要工具。国外学者研发了多种老年人死亡预测模型,包括社区、住院以及长期照护机构人群,部分工具已经进行了验证及推广,但是在中国内地尚缺乏相关研究。该文将对老年人死亡预测模型的内容、准确度和适用性等进行综述,为开发适合我国老年人群的死亡预测模型,制定最优临床决策提供依据。Optimizing health care in older adults is complex and must take into account their prognosis.Prediction models can provide determinants for shared-decision making and establish the most beneficial care options.Several mortality prediction models have been developed for different settings of older adults,including the community,inpatient,and long-term care.And some models have been validated and generalized.But there is a lack of relevant research in Chinese Mainland.In this paper,we review the content,accuracy,and applicability of mortality prediction models,to provide the foundation for developing a mortality prediction model applicable to the Chinese elderly population.

关 键 词：死亡 模型 理论 临终医护 老年人 综述 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]