基于主成分分析的上海水晶梨气候品质评价与应用  

Evaluation and application of climatic quality for crystal pearin Shanghai based on principal component analysis

作　　者：张皓 高慧莉 金凤雷 林雪君 包吉蕾 邵晨 马琳 ZHANG Hao;GAO Huili;JIN Fenglei;LIN Xuejun;BAO Jilei;SHAO Chen;MA Lin(Songjiang Meteorological Service,Shanghai 201620,China;Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Pear Research Institute,Shanghai 201699,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市松江区气象局,上海201620 [2]上海市生态气象和卫星遥感中心,上海200030 [3]上海市梨研究所,上海201699

出　　处：《上海农业学报》2023年第4期47-54,共8页Acta Agriculturae Shanghai

基　　金：上海市气象局科技开发项目(MS202017)。

摘　　要：农产品气候品质评价是合理利用区域气候资源优势,助力农产品品牌战略和提升市场竞争力的重要举措之一。基于2011—2022年上海市松江仓桥地区逐日气象观测资料和水晶梨品质测定数据,采用主成分分析和逐步回归等统计方法,建立基于水晶梨综合气候品质指数的气候品质评价模型,并在区域范围内开展应用。水晶梨综合气候品质指数(V)由最大单果重、平均单果重、可溶性固形物和横径4个品质测定要素降维简化成的2个相关性较低的主成分加权求和而成,权重系数为各主分量对应的特征值占变量总方差的比例。采用有序样本最优聚类法将水晶梨气候品质划分为4个等级,“特优”“优”“良好”“一般”所对应的阈值分别为V>0.9、0.85<V≤0.9、0.8<V≤0.85、V≤0.8。水晶梨气候品质指数与生长期间旬或跨旬尺度的气温、日照时数、相对湿度、降水等17个气象因子相关,其中14个气象因子分布在果实初次膨大期至二次膨大期间。所建立的评价模型模拟精度较高(归一化均方根误差为0.588),适用于水晶梨的气候品质的定量评价。Climatic quality evaluation is one of the important measures to the regional climate resources utilization,brand strategy of agricultural products promotion and market competitiveness improvement.Based on the daily meteorological observation data and the measurement data of crystal pear quality factors in Cangqiao area of Songjiang from 2011 to 2022,a climate quality evaluation model using the comprehensive climatic quality index of crystal pear was established by principal component analysis and stepwise regression,and applied in the region.The comprehensive climatic quality index(V)of crystal pear could be calculated from the weighted sum of 2 principal components with low correlation,which were simplified by dimensionality reduction of 4 quality factors(maximum fruit weight,average fruit weight,soluble solids and fruit transverse diameter).The weight coefficients were the ratios of Eigenvalues of 2 principal components to the total variance of the original variable.The comprehensive climatic quality index of crystal pear could be divided into 4 grades by the ordered samples optimal clustering.The thresholds corresponding to the 4 levels(“extra superior”,“excellent”,“good”and“general”)were V>0.9,0.85<V≤0.9,0.8<V≤0.85 and V≤0.8,respectively.The climatic quality of crystal pear was related to 17 meteorological factors in ten-day or more during the growth period such as temperature,sunshine duration,relative humidity and precipitation,among which 14 meteorological factors were distributed from fruit initial enlargement stage to the secondary enlargement stage.The simulation accuracy of the established model was high(the normalized root mean squared error was 0.588),which could be used as a quantitative evaluation method for the climatic quality of crystal pear.

关 键 词：气候品质 气象因子 评价方法 水晶梨 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学] S661.2[农业科学—农业基础科学]