基于逻辑斯谛分布的大型灌区节水改造项目实施效果模糊综合评价  

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of Large⁃Scale Irrigation Area Water⁃Saving Renovation Projects Based on Logistic Distribution

作　　者：田雨丰 何武全[1,2] 刘丽艳[3] 郑建行 石晓悟 TIAN Yufeng;HE Wuquan;LIU Liyan;ZHENG Jianxing;SHI Xiaowu(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water and Soil Engineering,the Ministry of Education,Yangling 712100,China;China Irrigation and Drainage Development Center,Beijing 100054,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100 [3]中国灌溉排水发展中心,北京100054

出　　处：《人民黄河》2023年第9期129-135,156,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400203)。

摘　　要：大型灌区节水改造项目投资大,影响因素多,为了客观评价大型灌区节水改造项目实施效果,评判是否达到改造目标,从工程建设情况、节水增收效益、灌区管理改革与灌区可持续发展4个方面,筛选出25个评价指标,提出4级分级标准和方法,建立了大型灌区节水改造项目实施效果评价指标体系。采用逻辑斯谛分布确定隶属度函数,对最大隶属度法进行改进,提出了基于逻辑斯谛分布的大型灌区节水改造项目实施效果模糊综合评价方法。以河北省某大型灌区为例进行实例评价,得出该灌区节水改造项目实施效果的综合隶属度为0.5730,总体评价为良好(Ⅱ),评价结果与灌区节水改造项目实施的实际情况基本一致。Large⁃scale irrigation area water⁃saving renovation projects have large investment and many influencing factors.In order to objectively evaluate the implementation effect of large⁃scale irrigation area water⁃saving renovation projects,it is necessary to judge whether the renovation goals are achieved.This paper selected 25 evaluation indicators from four aspects of project construction,water⁃saving and income⁃increasing benefits,irrigation area management reform and irrigation area sustainable development,put forward 4⁃level classification standards and methods and established a large⁃scale irrigation area water⁃saving renovation project implementation effect evaluation system.The membership function was determined by logistic distribution,the maximum membership method was improved and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the implementation effect of large⁃scale irrigation area water⁃saving renovation projects based on logistic distribution was proposed.Taking a large⁃scale irrigation area in Hebei Province as an example to conduct an example evaluation,it is concluded that the comprehensive membership degree of the implementation effect of the water⁃saving renovation project in this irrigation area is 0.5730 and the overall evaluation is good(Ⅱ).The evaluation results are basically consistent with the actual situation of the implementation of the water⁃saving renovation project in the irrigation area.

关 键 词：大型灌区 节水改造项目 实施效果 逻辑斯谛分布 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：S275.3[农业科学—农业水土工程]