中韩FTA对中国林产品出口韩国的三元边际影响研究——基于HS10位编码层面的分析  

Study on the Ternary Marginal Impact of China-Korea FTA on Chinese Forest Products Exports to Korea——Analysis Based on HS10 Bit Encoding Level

作　　者：刘琴 焦肖天 LIU Qin;JIAO Xiao-tian(School of Economics and Management(School of Cooperative),Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学经济管理学院(合作社学院),山东青岛266109

出　　处：《青岛农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期62-69,共8页Journal of Qingdao Agricultural University(Social Science)

基　　金：山东省专业学位研究生案例库建设项目(编号:SDYAL19137)。

摘　　要：文章选取2010—2021年HS10位编码层面的中国林产品对韩出口数据,测算了出口增长的三元边际变化率,并结合中韩FTA贸易规则探究了中韩FTA背景下中国林产品对韩出口增长的机制。结果显示:中韩FTA生效7年来,关税减让与贸易环境优化都在一定程度上促进了林产品的出口,但对出口增长边际的影响具有异质性。第一,对有关税减让的林产品,关税减让降低了集约边际,但提升了基准税率较高的产品的扩展边际;第二,对没有任何关税减让的林产品,贸易环境优化提升了集约边际,但降低了扩展边际。因原本零关税的林产品的出口比重较大,所以中韩FTA下贸易环境优化因素对整体林产品出口增加的作用更大一些,随着时间的推移,关税减让的效应也会逐渐增多。The article selects Chinese forest products export data to Korea at the HS10 code level from 2010-2021,measures the ternary marginal rate of change in export growth,and explores the mechanism of Chinese forest products export growth to Korea in the context of the China-Korea FTA in conjunction with the China-Korea FTA trade rules.The results show that both tariff concessions and trade environment optimization have promoted the export of forest products to some extent in the seven years since the China-Korea FTA came into effect,but the impact on the marginal export growth is heterogeneous.First,for forest products with tariff concessions,tariff concessions lowered the margin of aggregation but raised the margin of expansion for products with higher base rates;second,for forest products without any tariff concessions,trade environment optimization raised the margin of aggregation but lowered the margin of expansion.Since the proportion of exports of forest products with originally zero tariffs is larger,the trade environment optimization factor under the China-Korea FTA has a somewhat larger effect on the increase of overall forest product exports,and the effect of tariff concessions will gradually increase over time.

关 键 词：中韩FTA 林产品 三元边际 关税减让 贸易便利化 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]