气候变化与农户相对贫困--基于中国健康与营养调查数据的实证研究  

Climate Change and Relative Poverty of Rural Households:An Empirical Study Based on the Data from China Health and Nutrition Survey

作　　者：刘波 王修华[3] LIU Bo;WANG Xiuhua

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙410128 [2]湖南大学统计学流动站 [3]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》2023年第4期96-108,共13页Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“接续推进脱贫地区乡村振兴的金融支持研究”(21&ZD115)。

摘　　要：农业生产高度依赖于气候条件,气候变化已经危及农业生产的稳定性。缓解相对贫困、防止规模性返贫,应充分考虑气候变化带来的不确定性。以相对贫困的内涵为基础,结合贫困脆弱性的测度方法,给出一种量化相对贫困程度的方案。再基于中国健康与营养调查数据,将年均气温作为刻画气候变化的核心解释变量,评估气候变化对农户相对贫困程度的冲击程度及其异质性。实证研究表明:农户陷入相对贫困的可能性随着标准化年均气温的增加而提升,气候风险显著增加了农户的相对贫困程度;标准化年均气温与相对贫困呈“U”型关系,在最佳气候条件下,农户陷入相对贫困的可能性最低;“气候风险-投入产出效率-相对贫困”的传导机制成立,在给定农户投入的条件下,产出随着标准化年均气温的增加而减少。最后,结合农户抗风险能力偏弱的现状,提出相应的对策建议。Agricultural production is highly dependent on climate conditions,and climate change has endangered the sta-bility of agricultural production.To alleviate relative poverty and prevent massive return to poverty,the uncertainty brought by climate change needs to be taken as an important prerequisite.Based on the connotation of relative poverty and combining with the quantitative method of vulnerability of poverty,this paper provides a method to measure relative poverty.Then,based on the data from China Health and Nutrition Survey as the sample,and taking the annual average temperature as the core explanatory variable to describe climate change,we evaluate the impact of climate change on the degree of farmers'rela-tive poverty and its heterogeneity.The empirical research shows that the possibility of farmers'flling into relative poverty increases with the increase of standardized annual average temperature,and the climate risk significantly increases the relative poverty level of farmers and that the relationship between standardized annual average temperature and relative poverty is U-shaped,with the lowest possibility of farmers'falling into relative poverty under the best climate conditions;and that the transmission mechanism of"climate risk input-output eficiency-relative poverty"works.Given the input of farmers,the out-put decreases with the increase of standardized annual temperature.Finally,considering the current situation of weak anti-risk ability of farmers,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

关 键 词：气候变化 气候风险 相对贫困 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]