药品相关改革新政策背景下我国药品质量风险传导的系统动力学模拟  

System Dynamics Simulation of Drug Quality Risk Transmission in China under the Background of the New Drug Reform Policy

作　　者：刘美娴 汤少梁 Liu Meixian;Tang Shaoliang(School of Health Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,Nanjing,210023,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]南京中医药大学卫生经济管理学院,南京210023

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2023年第8期5-11,共7页Chinese Health Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72074125、71673148)。

摘　　要：目的:在药品改革新政策背景下构建药品质量风险传导系统动力学模型并进行仿真模拟分析,为研究药品质量风险传导机制和风险管控策略提供思路。方法:利用扎根理论和风险传导理论,对药品生产和流通环节的质量风险源、风险传导载体和风险接受者进行识别,以此为依据绘制构建药品质量风险传导系统动力学模型并进行模拟仿真分析。结果:生产和流通子系统质量风险均呈现出先S型增长后转为目标寻求型的变化趋势,流通环节质量风险略高于生产环节质量风险。结论:相关风险接受者需加大质量控制努力投入,控制风险源,阻断风险传导路径。政府部门需加强政策协同,实现“双通道”品种整合,继续扩大集采覆盖面。Objective:To construct a dynamic model of drug quality risk transmission system under the background of the new drug reform policy and conduct simulation analysis,in order to provide references for studying the mechanism of drug quality risk transmission and risk control strategies.Methods:The Grounded theory and risk transmission theory were used to identify the quality risk source,risk transmission carriers and risk recipients in the process of drug production and circulation,so as to construct and simulate a dynamic model of drug quality risk transmission system.Results:Both production and distribution subsystem quality risks show a trend of S-shaped growth followed by a shift to a target-seeking pattern,with distribution quality risks slightly higher than production quality risks.Conclusion:Risk related recipients needed to increase investment in quality control efforts,control risk source and block the risk transmission path.Government departments need to strengthen policy coordination,achieve the integration of“dual channel”varieties,and continue to expand the coverage of centralized procurement.

关 键 词：药品质量 药品质量风险传导 系统动力学 药品改革新政策 

分 类 号：R1-9[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] R-012