基于效用理论的铁路综合维修天窗开设方案决策研究  

Decision-Making of Railway Comprehensive Maintenance Skylight Opening Plan Based on Utility Theory

作　　者：袁林 吕红霞[1,2,3] 倪少权[1,2,3] 陈钉均[1,2,3] YUAN Lin;LYU Hongxia;NI Shaoquan;CHEN Dingjun(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Sichuan,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Sichuan,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都610031 [3]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都610031

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2023年第9期9-14,27,共7页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52172321,52072314,52102391)。

摘　　要：为综合定量决策维修天窗开设方案,刻画决策者在不同运维需求条件下的天窗开设方案选择行为。基于效用理论,选取畅通性、高效性、快速性、安全性与协调性作为天窗开设方案技术属性,结合AHP-熵权法建立天窗开设方案效用函数与综合决策模型;利用Logit函数计算天窗开设方案分担率;基于夹角测度与距离测度方法对天窗开设方案的属性权重与属性值进行敏感性分析。案例结果表明:最佳天窗开设方案为4 hV形天窗,不同运营阶段的分担率分别为17.220%,17.256%,17.311%,决策者在天窗开设方案选择时对线路通过能力具有一定的偏好性;通过敏感性分析发现,4 h分段矩形天窗为潜在最优方案,畅通性、高效性的属性权重整体敏感程度较高,协调性的属性值相对更敏感。To comprehensively and quantitatively decide the maintenance plan for skylight opening,this paper described the decision-maker's choice behavior under different operation and maintenance requirements.Based on the utility theory,it selected smoothness,efficiency,rapidity,safety,and coordination as the technical attributes of the skylight opening plan.An analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-entropy weight method was combined to build a utility function and comprehensive decision model for the skylight opening plan.The Logit function was utilized to calculate the sharing rate of skylight opening plan.Furthermore,angle and distance measurement methods were employed for sensitivity analysis of the attribute weight and attribute value of the skylight opening plan.Results show that the optimal skylight opening plan is 4 hV type skylight,with sharing rates at different operation stages of 17.220%,17.256%,and 17.311%,respectively.Decision makers have a preference for the line passing capacity when choosing the skylight opening plan.Sensitivity analysis reveals that a 4 h segmented rectangular skylight is the potential optimal solution,with high overall sensitivity for the attribute weight of smoothness and efficiency,and a relative sensitivity for the attribute value of coordination.

关 键 词：铁路运输 天窗方案决策 效用理论 维修天窗 选择行为 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：U216[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]