延寿不确定性下疲劳损伤结构的维修策略分析  

Maintenance strategy analysis of fatigue-sensitive structure under service life extension uncertainty

作　　者：张杰 刘炎 李天匀[1] 卢忆文 ZHANG Jie;LIU Yan;LI Tianyun;LU Yiwen(School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;China Ship Development and Design Center,Wuhan 430064,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国舰船研究设计中心,湖北武汉430064

出　　处：《中国舰船研究》2023年第4期233-241,共9页Chinese Journal of Ship Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51839005);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(HUST:2020kfyXJJS047)。

摘　　要：[目的]为降低船舶延寿不确定性的影响以及未来延寿期间的疲劳风险,采取基于实物期权分析方法的动态维修序列决策。[方法]以高速船舶的局部疲劳为例,在船舶服役前期加强维修,在后期根据延寿要求确定适应性维修决策,以适应未来可能出现的各种延寿可能性。[结果]结果显示,与传统的维修策略相比,实物期权分析下的灵活决策能够减小延寿不确定性的影响,有效降低船舶延寿期间的失效风险。[结论]采用实物期权分析方法制定的序列决策对于未来出现的延寿不确定性具有很强的适应性,可为维修决策提供一种新的思路。[Objectives]In order to reduce the influence of ship service life extension uncertainty and fa-tigue risk during future service life extension,a dynamic maintenance sequence decision based on the real op-tion analysis method is adopted.[Methods]The local fatigue of a high-speed ship is taken as an example.This strategy strengthens the maintenance in the early stages of the ship's service and determines the adaptive maintenance decision according to the requirements of service life extension in the later stages,thereby adapt-ing to the various possibilities of service life extension in the future.[Results]Compared with the tradition-al maintenance strategy,the flexible decision under real option analysis can reduce the influence of service life extension uncertainty and effectively reduce failure risk during service life extension.[Conclusions]The se-quential decision made via the real option analysis method has strong adaptability to the uncertainty of service life extension in the future and provides a new idea for maintenance decisions.

关 键 词：疲劳损伤 延寿不确定性 维修管理 实物期权分析 灵活性 

分 类 号：U672.7[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]