家庭生命周期视角下城乡居民教育回报率变动研究  

Returns to Education among Rural and Urban Residents:A Study with the Perspective of Family Life Cycle

作　　者：杨博[1] 路多 YANG Bo;LU Duo(Shaanxi Normal University,International Business School,Xi'an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第4期47-58,共12页Population and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目“脆弱性视角下农村家庭发展风险及形成机制与政策研究”(22YJC840034);陕西省社科基金项目“乡村振兴视角下陕西农村脱贫家庭发展稳定性研究”(2022F008)。

摘　　要：在当前老龄化与少子化以及鼓励生育政策形势下,家庭的自然发展演变带来更多家庭需求,居民为家庭提供更多支持和照顾成为普遍现象,居民教育回报率可能因此面临波动甚至下降风险,城乡之间还可能因社会经济环境以及个体家庭差异而不同。引入反映城乡家庭自然发展规律的家庭生命周期理论,基于明瑟收入方程测量教育回报率,应用中国家庭金融调查数据构建Heckman两阶段模型,探讨家庭生命周期对居民教育回报率的影响并总结城乡差异,通过分位数回归进一步解释教育回报率变化的收入异质性。结果表明,家庭生命周期后半程对居民教育回报率产生显著影响,对农村居民的影响尤为明显;当家庭周期自然演变后,居民教育回报率随着家庭需求增加而持续降低,农村居民变化程度强于城市居民。收入异质性表明,城乡低收入居民相比其他居民更容易受家庭周期影响而发生教育回报率下降;中高收入居民的教育回报率随家庭周期而变化的城乡差异始终存在。建议在城乡发展政策以及乡村振兴战略中纳入养老与托育等家庭发展保障,减少家庭需求对教育回报的挤出效应。In the current circumstance with aging,falling of Children population and policy of encourage childbirth,families demand more supports from individuals when families are growing naturally,in which more and more individuals supply more cares and reduce work time.Therefore,returns to education among individuals may decrease and this change may vary between rural and urban individuals.This study introduces family life cycle theory,which explains the natural rule of family change,and measures returns to education by Mincer equation.Based on public dada,the Heckman two-stage models reveal the robust effects from family life cycles to returns to education between rural and urban residents.Quantile regression models reveal the heterogeneity of income about the effects above.The results indicate that the second half part of family life cycle have significant impacts to returns to education,especially rural individuals;when families go to the next stage,most individuals have decreased returns to education,especially rural individuals.The heterogeneity results indicate that low-income individuals both in rural and urban areas are more likely than others to be influenced by family life cycles and continuously have lower rate of returns to education;among rural and urban individuals with middle and high income,differences of such change always exist.Strategies of rural-urban development and rural vitalization are suggested to include more supports to improve aging and children care services toward families and reduce the negative impacts of family demands to individual's returns to education.

关 键 词：教育回报率 城乡居民 城乡家庭 家庭生命周期 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]