费钱还是费力?家庭教育投入对生育意愿的抑制及调节效应分析  

Expensive or Laborious?Inhibitory and Moderation Effects of Family Education Inputs on Fertility Desire

作　　者：贺达 HE Da(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第4期59-74,共16页Population and Development

基　　金：江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目“文化产业政策变迁中的政府行为特性演变研究”(2020SJA0049)。

摘　　要：家庭教育经济投入和时间投入对生育意愿的抑制效应似乎不言而喻,但哪一类抑制效应更强还有待探究。基于家庭生育扩展OLG模型,使用CFPS2018数据,利用Poisson回归,实证检验家庭教育经济投入和时间投入对生育意愿的抑制效应,并揭示代际社会流动对其抑制效应的调节作用。结果表明,家庭教育经济投入和时间投入均显著抑制了育龄人群生育意愿。采用工具变量法解决内生性问题和一系列稳健性检验后,结果依然稳健。异质性分析表明,学前教育阶段的经济投入、小学和初中阶段的时间投入、一孩家庭的经济和时间投入显著抑制了生育意愿,而家庭教育经济投入对女性、农村、中高收入群体、二孩及以上家庭生育意愿的抑制作用未获得经验证据的支持。进一步的调节效应分析表明,代际社会流动能够减弱家庭教育经济投入对生育意愿的不利影响。It seems to be self-evident that the economic input and time input of family education have the inhibitory effect on fertility intention,but which kind of inhibitory effect is stronger remains to be explored.Based on a generalized OLG model of family fertility,using CFPS2018 data and Poisson regression,this paper empirically tests the inhibitory effect of economic input and time input of family education on fertility desire,and reveals the moderation effect of intergenerational social mobility on the inhibitory effect.The results show that both the economic input and time input of family education significantly inhibit the fertility desire of the population at childbearing age.After adopting instrumental variable method to solve the endogenous problem and a series of robustness tests,the results are still stable.Heterogeneity analysis shows that economic input in preschool education,time input in primary and middle school,economic and time inputfor one-child family significantly inhibit fertility intention,while the inhibitory effect of economic input of family education on fertility intention of women,rural areas,middle-high income groups and families with two or more children are not supported by empirical evidence.Further analysis of the moderation effect shows that intergenerational social mobility can reduce the negative impact of economic input of family education on fertility desire.

关 键 词：家庭教育经济投入 家庭教育时间投入 生育意愿 代际社会流动 调节效应 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]