中国地级以上城市流动人口时空格局演变及影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of Prefecture-level Floating Population in China

作　　者：许蓝方 武继磊[1] 庞丽华[1] XU Lan-fang;WU Ji-lei;PANG Li-hua(Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Bejing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第4期89-99,共11页Population and Development

摘　　要：基于“六普”、“七普”资料,运用空间数据分析技术对336个地级以上城市的流动人口空间分布与集聚特征进行分析;利用地理探测器,探究2020年流动人口空间分布的影响因素。主要研究结论如下:(1)我国人口流动规模空间差异明显,整体上呈现空间集聚,但集聚程度有所下降。(2)东部发达地区的人口集聚区逐步发挥溢出效应,流动人口由核心区向周边辐射;中部地区的空间分布不均范围进一步扩大,人口流出空心化程度加强;西北地区的人口流入显著性增强。(3)地理探测器因子探测结果表明,经济与就业因素是人口流动的核心驱动指标,第三产业对流动人口的吸纳能力更强;社会保障、教育、医疗、交通因素都可显著解释流动人口的空间分异。(4)地理探测器交互探测结果表明,社会保障因素、高等教育因素分别是省际流动人口、省内县际流动人口的重要的交互解释项。Taking 336 cities above the prefecture level as the research area,the spatial distribution and agglomeration characteristics of floating population are studied by using spatial analysis technology,and the influencing factors are analyzed based on geographic detectors.The results show as followed:(1)There are obvious regional differences in floating population,but the spatial agglomeration decreases.(2)The floating population gradually overflows from the population concentrations in the developed eastern regions to the surrounding areas.The scope of spatial distribution inequality in central regions further expands.The significance of population inflow in northwest regions increases.(3)The results of factor detector show that economic and employment factors are the core driving indicators of population mobility,and the tertiary industry provides more jobs for the floating population;social security,education,medical care,and thetransportation factors can significantly explain the spatial divergence of the floating population.(4)The interaction detector results show that social security factors is an important interaction term for inter-provincial population mobility,and higher education factor is for inter-county population mobility within the province.

关 键 词：第七次人口普查 流动人口 空间分布 地理探测器 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]