国内外市场联动下非竞争型投入产出价格模型及俄乌冲突对我国物价影响测算  

Non-competitive input-output price model capturing the co-variation between domestic and international markets and its empirical application on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on China’s domestic price

作　　者：林康 高翔 杨翠红[1,2,3,4] 汪寿阳[1,2,3,4] LIN Kang;GAO Xiang;YANG Cuihong;WANG Shouyang(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Key Laboratory of Management,Decision and Information Systems,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 [3]中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室,北京100190 [4]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2023年第7期2072-2083,共12页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72103184,71988101);中国科协决策咨询专家团队资助项目(20220615ZZ08010010);“一带一路”国际科学组织联盟战略咨询项目(ANSO-SBA-2021-03)。

摘　　要：受俄乌冲突影响,国际大宗商品价格剧烈波动,给我国带来了输入性通胀的风险.本文构建了考虑国内外市场联动的非竞争型投入产出价格模型,该模型不仅能刻画由于进口原材料成本波动导致的国内下游产品价格变化,而且考虑了由于国内外市场价格联动所导致的国内同类产品的价格波动及其在产业链中的连锁反应,从而能够更加准确地测算国际价格波动对我国国内物价的影响.本文应用该模型分析了俄乌冲突对我国国内物价的影响,结果表明,整体而言俄乌冲突对我国PPI的影响大于CPI,且对物价造成的影响主要通过能源传导至国内;分部门来看,精炼石油和核燃料加工品等高耗能部门受影响较大,第三产业等与能源上下游关系较远的部门受影响较小.The paper proposes a non-competitive input-output price model capturing the covariation between domestic and international markets.In addition to measuring the impact of imported raw materials price fluctuation on domestic price,the model can recognize the covariation of the same product between domestic and international markets,which enables a more accurate measurement of domestic prices changes due to international price fluctuations.Based on the model,an analysis of the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on China’s domestic price level is conducted in the empirical part.The result shows the impact on China’s producer price is heavier than the consumer price,and the rising of China’s domestic price is mainly due to the increase of international price of energy products.

关 键 词：投入产出价格模型 国内外市场联动 俄乌冲突 国内物价 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济] F726