四川省水稻移栽——分蘖期低温连阴雨时空分布  

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Low Temperature and Continuous Rain During Rice Transplanting to Tillering Stage in Sichuan Province

作　　者：刘若岚 袁淑杰[1] 阮迪陈 韩琳[1] 施红霞 LIU Ruolan;YUAN Shujie;RUAN Dichen;HAN Lin;SHI Hongxia(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第22期115-123,共9页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目“基于多源遥感数据的四川省水稻高温热害监测和评估研究”(2021YJ0280);气象灾害预测预警与应急管理研究中心开放研究基金项目“乡村振兴战略背景下气候变化对四川省水稻气象灾害影响研究”(ZHYJ20-YB02);干旱气象基金“黄土高原玉米精细化干旱指标适用性研究”(IAM202004)。

摘　　要：为对四川水稻不同生育期低温连阴雨灾害防护提供科学依据,将四川根据地形及气候特点分为6个子区域,基于1961—2020年91个气象台站资料,运用线性倾向估计法,结合低温连阴雨灾害指标,计算灾害发生频率、灾害指数、气候倾向率等分析低温连阴雨灾害时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)四川省水稻移栽—分蘖期轻、中、重度低温灾害发生频率分别为0.38%~27.5%、0%~57.6%和0%~75.3%。虽然轻度冷害发生频率小,但覆盖面积最广,中度次之,主要在川西南山地区,重度冷害高发站为广安、隆昌。(2)轻、中、重度连阴雨灾害发生频率为8.8%~25.5%、1.4%~18.0%、0%~11.2%,轻、中、重度连阴雨灾害发生频率呈递减趋势,中、重度灾害在川西南山地区北部发生频率最高。(3)低温连阴雨灾害发生频率0%~26.1%。低温连阴雨灾害主要在川西南山地区北部、盆南丘陵区、盆周边缘山地区出现。(4)1961—2020年有23个站低温连阴雨灾害发生天数年际变化显著。在川西南山地南部、盆周边缘山地区、盆中浅丘区每10年灾害天数有所减少,其余地区则灾害天数增加。川西南山地区北部和盆南丘陵区为低温连阴雨高发区;四川省水稻移栽—分蘖期低温连阴雨灾害除盆南丘陵区及盆东平行岭谷区外部分站点外,四川大部分地区近年来低温连阴雨灾害减少。To provide a scientific basis for rice protection against low temperature and continuous rain in Sichuan during different fertility periods,this paper divided Sichuan into six sub-regions based on topographic and climatic characteristics.The study took records of 91 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020 as the analysis data,and used the linear propensity estimation method and low temperature and continuous rain disaster indicators,to calculate the frequency of disasters,disaster index,and climate propensity rate,and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of low temperature and continuous rain disasters.The results are as follows.(1) The frequency of mild,moderate and severe low temperature disasters during the transplanting and tillering stage of rice in Sichuan was 0.38%-27.5%,0%-57.6% and 0%-75.3%,respectively.Although the frequency of mild low temperature disaster was small,it covered the widest area,followed by moderate low temperature disaster,mainly in the mountainous area of southwest Sichuan,and the high frequency of severe low temperature disaster was only observed in Guang'an and Longchang.(2) The frequency of light,medium and heavy continuous rain disaster was 8.8%-25.5%,1.4%-8.0% and 0%-11.2%respectively,the frequency of light,medium and heavy continuous rain disaster had a decreasing trend,and the frequency of medium and heavy disasters were the highest in the northern part of the mountainous area in southwest Sichuan.(3) The frequency of low temperature and continuous rain disaster was 0%-26.1%.Low temperature and continuous rain disaster was in the northern part of the mountainous area of southwest Sichuan,the hilly area of southern Sichuan basin,and the mountainous area of Sichuan basin edge.(4) There were 23 stations recorded significantly interannual variations in the number of days of low-temperature and continuous rain disaster from 1961 to 2020.The number of disaster days per decade decreased in the southern part of mountainous area of southwest Sichuan,the mountain

关 键 词：四川省水稻 移栽—分蘖期 低温连阴雨 灾害分布 

分 类 号：S-03[农业科学]