中国粮食主产区低温灾害变化趋势和变化周期的研究  

Research on the Variation Trend and Cycle of Low Temperature Disasters in China's Major Grain Producing Areas

作　　者：田志会[1] 牟东明 李光 李晓雪 TIAN Zhihui;MOU Dongming;LI Guang;LI Xiaoxue(Department of Landscape Design&Forestry,Beijing University of Agriculture,Beijing 102206;Agricultural and Rural Development Service Center of Liaocheng,Shandong Province,Liaocheng,Shandong 252000)

机构地区：[1]北京农学院园林学院,北京102206 [2]山东省聊城市农业农村发展服务中心,山东聊城252000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第24期90-95,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“粮食主产区主要气象灾变过程及其减灾保产调控关键技术”(2017YFD0300400)。

摘　　要：基于粮食主产区1971—2016年低温灾害农作物受灾率,采用Mann-Kendall (M-K)趋势检验法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法以及经验模态分解法(EMD)对中国粮食主产区低温灾害变化趋势和变化周期进行分析,以期为降低粮食主产区低温灾害风险及灾害损失提供理论依据。结果表明:(1)低温灾害农作物受灾率增加趋势显著的省份包括:湖南、湖北、江西、四川、安徽、河南和山东省。(2)低温灾害农作物受灾率突变时间主要发生在20世纪80年代末期、90年代初期及90年代末期,增加趋势显著期主要发生在20世纪90年代末期至21世纪初期。(3)低温灾害的发生表现为准3年、准6年、准11年和准24年周期,但主要是以准3年为波动周期。Based on the crop disaster rate of low-temperature disaster in major grain producing areas from 1971 to 2016,the variation trend and cycle of low temperature disaster were analyzed by Mann-Kendall(M-K)trend test,Mann-Kendall mutation test and empirical mode decomposition(EMD),so as to provide a theoretical basis for reducing the risk and loss of low-temperature disasters in major grain producing areas.The results showed that:(1) the crop disaster rate of low-temperature disaster had a significant increasing trend in Hunan,Hubei,Jiangxi,Sichuan,Anhui,Henan and Shandong Provinces.(2) The mutation time of crop disaster rate of low-temperature disaster mainly occurred in the late 1980s,the early 1990s and the late 1990s.The period of significant increasing trend mainly occurred from late 1990s to early 21st century.(3) Low temperature disasters had the characteristics of quasi-3 years,quasi-6 years,quasi 11 years and quasi-24-year periods.However,it was mainly based on the quasi-3 years as the main fluctuation cycle.

关 键 词：粮食主产区 低温灾害 受灾率 趋势 周期 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]