基于关键气象因子的湘西烤烟产量预报模型构建  

Construction of Flue-cured Tobacco Yield Forecast Model in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture Based on Key Meteorological Factors

作　　者：何娜 范雨娴 袁小康[3] 张明发 张胜 HE Na;FAN Yuxian;YUAN Xiaokang;ZHANG Mingfa;ZHANG Sheng(Zixing Meteorological Bureau,Zixing,Hunan 423400;Yiyang Meteorological Bureau,Yiyang,Hunan 413000;Hunan Research Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Changsha 410118;Hunan Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture Tobacco Company,Jishou,Hunan 416000)

机构地区：[1]资兴市气象局,湖南资兴423400 [2]益阳市气象局,湖南益阳413000 [3]湖南省气象科学研究所,长沙410118 [4]湖南省烟草公司湘西自治州公司,湖南吉首416000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第24期96-102,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：湘西州烟草公司项目“湘西州烤烟产质量提升气象关键技术及决策服务系统”(2019433100200198)。

摘　　要：构建湘西州主栽烤烟品种的产量预报模型,为烤烟生产决策和管理提供科学依据。基于2019—2021年湘西中海拔地区2个主栽烤烟品种‘云烟87’和‘湘烟7号’的田间实测产量资料和平行气象观测资料,将产量资料与不同生育期气象因子作相关分析,找出影响产量的关键气象因子,再将产量与关键气象因子作逐步回归,最终建立产量预测模型,并用独立资料对模型进行检验。结果表明:影响‘云烟87’烤烟产量的关键气象因子是旺长—成熟期平均相对湿度、成熟期50 d内干旱日数、旺长后51~60 d降水量等,而影响‘湘烟7号’烤烟产量的主要气象因子是成熟期50 d内干旱日数、旺长—成熟期≥13℃有效积温、移栽后61~70 d平均温度等。‘云烟87’产量预报模型的回代检验和预报检验的准确率分别为94.6%、97.5%‘,湘烟7号’产量预报模型的回代检验和预报检验的准确率分别为96.7%、89.6%。To provide scientific basis for decision-making and management of flue-cured tobacco production,the yield forecast model of flue-cured tobacco was studied.Based on the yield data and meteorological observation data of two main flue-cured tobacco varieties‘Yunyan 87' and‘Xiangyan 7' in the middle altitude area of Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture,Hunan Province from 2019 to 2021,correlation analysis was carried out between yield data and meteorological data in different growth stages to find out the key meteorological factors which affected yield,and stepwise regression was made between yield and key meteorological factors.Finally,the yield forecast models of flue-cured tobacco were established,and were tested by independent data.The results showed that the key meteorological factors which affected the yield of‘Yunyan 87' flue-cured tobacco were the average relative humidity in the prosperous mature period,the number of dry days in 50 days of the mature period,and the precipitation in 51-60 days after the prosperous mature period.The main meteorological factors which affected the yield of‘Xiangyan 7' flue-cured tobacco were the number of dry days in 50 days of the mature period,the effective accumulated temperature of 13℃ in the prosperous mature period,and the average temperature in 61-70 days after transplanting.The accuracy rates of back generation test and forecast test of‘Yunyan 87' yield forecast model were 94.6% and 97.5%,respectively,and the accuracy rates of back generation test and forecast test of‘Xiangyan 7' yield forecast model were 96.7% and 89.6%,respectively.

关 键 词：‘云烟87’ ‘湘烟7号’ 关键气象因子 烤烟产量预报 湘西州 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]