汇率变动、OFDI与出口贸易--中国与欧亚经济联盟经贸关系的经验分析  

Exchange rate fluctuations,OFDI and export trade:Empirical analysis of economic and trade relations between China and EEU

作　　者：程显宏 毕鹏[2] 王蒙[3] CHENG Xianhong;BI Peng;WANG Meng(School of Wu Jinglian Economics,Changzhou University,Changzhou 213159,P.R.China;School of Economics and Management,Jiamusi University,Jiamusi 154007,P.R.China;School of Economics,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]常州大学吴敬琏经济学院,江苏常州213159 [2]佳木斯大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江佳木斯154007 [3]曲阜师范大学经济学院,山东日照276826

出　　处：《重庆大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期33-49,共17页Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“双循环新发展格局下人民币汇率的资源配置效应研究”(21BJL015)。

摘　　要：巩固和发展同欧亚经济联盟的经贸合作关系对于促进“一带一路”倡议的深远发展具有重要意义。作者基于新经济地理学理论,结合引入汇率因素的结构化贸易引力模型,在理论层面上构建了汇率变动、OFDI与出口贸易关系的理论模型并提出研究假设,将汇率变动划分为汇率水平变动与汇率波动,引入第三方汇率波动并细化为区域邻国汇率波动、中美汇率波动和中欧汇率波动三方面,采用2003—2017年中国与欧亚经济联盟成员国贸易和投资面板数据,运用全面可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)、工具变量法(2SLS、GMM和LIML)等估计方法实证检验了汇率变动、OFDI对出口贸易的影响以及异质性汇率变动条件下OFDI的出口效应。通过研究发现:中国对欧亚经济联盟OFDI与出口贸易呈现互补关系;汇率波动对出口贸易产生显著抑制作用,而汇率水平变动影响则不显著;区域经济一体化显著降低中国对欧亚经济联盟的出口贸易;引入第三方汇率波动变量,发现第三方汇率波动效应具有异质性,区域邻国汇率波动有助于促进中国对欧亚经济联盟的出口,而中美与中欧汇率波动影响并不显著。利用国际贸易标准货物分类(SITC)将出口产品分为初级产品、劳动密集型产品和资本密集型产品,进一步探究OFDI对异质性产品出口贸易的影响,发现中国对欧亚经济联盟OFDI与不同类型的产品均具有显著互补关系,汇率水平变动对不同类型产品出口影响仍然不显著;双边汇率波动、区域经济一体化显著抑制中国与欧亚经济联盟的出口贸易,同时在考虑第三方汇率波动的情形下,双边汇率波动对初级产品的影响程度增强,对劳动和资本密集型产品的影响减弱;第三方汇率波动对不同类型产品的影响具有异质性,初级产品中第三方汇率波动均显著促进出口;劳动密集型产品中第三方汇率波动均无显著影响;资本密集�Consolidating and developing economic and trade cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union is of great significance for“the Belt and Road”Initiative.Based on the theory of new economic geography,combined with the structured trade gravity model with the introduction of exchange rate factors,the authors construct a theoretical model of exchange rate changes,the relationship between OFDI and export trade,and put forward research hypotheses.The exchange rate changes are divided into exchange rate level changes and exchange rate fluctuations,and the third-party exchange rate fluctuations are introduced and refined into exchange rate fluctuations of regional neighbors in terms of exchange rate fluctuations between China and the United States and between China and Europe.Using the panel data of trade and investment between China and the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union from 2003 to 2017,the authors empirically test the exchange rate changes,the impact of OFDI on export trade and the export effect of OFDI under the condition of heterogeneous exchange rate changes by using the estimation methods such as the comprehensive feasible generalized least square method(FGLS),instrumental variable method(2SLS,GMM and LIML).It is found that:1)China’s OFDI and export trade to Eurasian Economic Union are complementary;Exchange rate fluctuations have a significant inhibitory effect on export trade,while the impact of exchange rate changes is not significant;Regional economic integration significantly reduces China’s export trade to the Eurasian Economic Union;Introducing the third-party exchange rate fluctuation variable,it is found that the third-party exchange rate fluctuation effect is heterogeneous.The exchange rate fluctuation of regional neighbors helps to promote China’s export to Eurasian Economic Union,while the impact of exchange rate fluctuation between China,the United States and central Europe is not significant.2)The export products are divided into primary products,labor-intensive products and

关 键 词：汇率变动 OFDI 出口贸易 中国与欧亚经济联盟 结构化贸易引力模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]