ECMWF模式温度预报在山东半岛沿海地区的检验  

Verification of ECMWF Fine Grid Model for Air Temperature in Shandong Peninsula Coast Areas

作　　者：李建华 周丹 崔宜少 LI Jianhua;ZHOU Dan;CUI Yishao(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong,Jinan 250031,China;Weihai Meteorological Bureau,Weihai 264200,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]威海市气象局,山东威海264200

出　　处：《海岸工程》2023年第3期218-230,共13页Coastal Engineering

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J084);山东省气象局科学技术研究项目(2022sdqxm04);山东省气象局项目(2021SDYD36和SDYBY2018-12)

摘　　要：利用2017年至2019年山东半岛15个沿海气象站观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)细网格模式预报数据,采用逐日预报准确率和逐月平均差值计算方法,对地面2 m温度进行了检验,针对威海地区冷空气、冷流降雪和海雾过程分别进行了预报性能检验。结果表明:24 h时效内预报误差≤2℃时,低温预报准确率为60%~95%,高温预报准确率为50%~89%。低温预报中,北部沿海和南部沿海在3月至9月逐月平均预报误差小于1℃。冷空气过程高温预报正负差值比率相当,低温预报正差值的占比较大,最高为96%;冷流降雪过程中,高、低温预报整体以正差值为主;浓雾出现区域,模式的低温预报偏高。模式结果可为3月至9月低温预报提供较好的参考依据。Based on the observed data and the data forecasted by ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)fine grid model at 15 meteorological stations in the coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula from 2017 to 2019,2-meter air temperature on the ground is verified by using daily forecast accuracy and monthly average error methods.The forecast effectiveness of ECMWF model is verified respectively for the processes of cold air,cold-flow snow and sea fog in Weihai region.The results show that when the error of forecast accuracy is less than 2℃within 24 h time limit the forecast accuracy is 60%-95%for low temperature and 50%-89%for high temperature.In the low-temperture forecasts the monthly average forecast error is smaller than 1℃in the northern and southern coastal areas from March to September.The ratio of positive to negative errors is comparable fot the high temperature forecast in the cold-air process.The positive error of the low temperature forecast has a larger proportion,being up to 96%in maximum.In the cold-flow snow process the forecasts of high and low air temperature are generally dominated with positive errors.In the coastal areas where heavy sea fog occurs often,the low air temperature forecasted by the ECMWF model is relatively higher than that observed actually.The results from the ECMWF model can provide a good reference for the low temperature forcast from March to September.

关 键 词：山东半岛 预报性能检验 海雾 冷流降雪 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]