劳动力成本上升、机器自动化与制造业转移  

The Rising Labor Costs,Machine Automation and the Transfer of Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：罗润东[1] 李琼琼 郭怡笛 LUO Rundong;LI Qiong-qIong;GUO Yi-di

机构地区：[1]山东大学劳动经济与人力资源研究中心 [2]浙江大学经济学院 [3]中国信息通信研究院政策与经济研究所

出　　处：《改革》2023年第8期66-81,共16页Reform

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“异质性人工智能模式对人力资本的结构性替代与再配置效应”(72073082);国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国社会科学研究的国际化及其影响力研究”(20AZD115)。

摘　　要：基于国际机器人联盟数据、国内地级市最低工资数据以及中国工业企业数据,从城市和企业两个层面考察在机器自动化背景下劳动力成本上升对制造业转移的影响。研究表明,最低工资标准上升显著降低了城市制造业份额,加速了制造业转移,而机器自动化能够缓解最低工资标准上升对制造业发展的负面影响,减轻制造业外迁压力。异质性分析表明,在制度性约束低、贸易开放度高以及人力资本水平高的地区,机器自动化对制造业企业成本承压转移的缓解效应更为明显。进一步研究发现,自动化技术能够抵消劳动力成本上升对制造业企业生产经营的不利冲击,降低其退出风险。此外,机器自动化的生产率效应是推动制造业企业扩大生产规模、提高投资积极性、抑制企业外迁的重要机制。现阶段劳动力成本上升已成为趋势,政府在优化布局产业承接转移的同时还应相机制定适当政策鼓励企业自动化转型,以保持中国制造业产业链完整、提升产业竞争力。Using the database of the International Federation of Robots(IFR),the minimum wage data of prefecture-level cities,and the Chinese Annual Survey of Industrial Firms,this paper empirically examines the impact of rising labor costs on the spatial shift of manufacturing industries from the machine automation perspective,both at the city and firm levels.The results of the study show that the increased minimum wage substantially diminishes the share of urban manufacturing sector and accelerates manufacturing relocation.However,the incorporation of automation can alleviate the adverse effects stemming from the increased minimum wage on the manufacturing sectors,thereby mitigating the pressure for manufacturing relocation.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the mitigating effect of automation on manufacturing shifts is more pronounced in regions with low institutional restriction,high trade openness,and high levels of human capital.Further research finds that automation technology can mitigate the adverse impact of labor costs on manufacturing firms'operations,thereby alleviating their vulnerability to the risk of exit.Furthermore,the productivity-enhancing impact of industrial robots could serve as a significant mechanism driving firms to expand their production capacities,intensify investment incentives,and restrain tendencies for relocation.In the context of rising labor costs as a prevailing and enduring trend,the government should develop appropriate policies to encourage the automation transformation of enterprises while optimizing the layout of industries to take over the transfer,to maintain the integrity of China's manufacturing industry chain and enhance its industrial competitiveness.

关 键 词：劳动力成本 机器自动化 制造业转移 企业外迁 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]