中国农业现代化的重要议题:谁来改造传统农业?——来自农民工回流对农业专业化经营影响的证据  

An Important Issue in China's Agricultural Modernization:Who Will Transform Traditional Agriculture?Evidence from the Impact of Returning Migrant Workers on Agricultural Specialisation

作　　者：肖剑 罗必良[2] XIAO Jian;LUO Bi-liang

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院 [2]华南农业大学

出　　处：《改革》2023年第8期82-100,共19页Reform

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“乡村振兴战略实施中政府与市场的关系及其协调研究”(71933004)。

摘　　要：改造传统农业的关键在于提升农民的人力资本。农民工回流作为流出地人力资本的一种补偿形式,能否促进农业经营方式及其现代化转型,是一个值得关注的重要话题。农业专业化是农业现代化的重要表征。利用中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)2016年和2018年两期数据分析农民工回流对农业专业化经营的影响,结果表明:第一,农民工回流显著促进了农户农业专业化经营,且经过多种稳健性检验依然成立。第二,机制分析表明,农民工回流通过提升信息获取能力、风险承担能力,以及借助农地转入和农机采纳等路径实现专业化经营的转变。第三,异质性分析表明,在不同年龄段的回流农民工中,中年群体对专业化经营的作用最为显著;务工时长与专业化经营呈倒U型关系;务工时的工作变换更有助于农业经营专业化。第四,情景分析表明,在家庭互联网接入和村庄合作组织相对完善的情境下,农民工回流将进一步强化农业专业化经营。推动中国农业的现代化转型,应重视回流农民工异质性人力资本的内生性作用。中国庞大的农民工群体,将是推进中国农业现代化的重要支持力量与可动员的社会资源。The key to transform traditional agriculture is to enhance the human capital of farmers.As a form of compensation for human capital in the outflow area,whether migrant workers'return can promote the agricultural operation mode and its modernization transformation,is an important topic worthy of attention.Agricultural specialization is an important symbol of agricultural modernization.This paper uses the data of China Labor Dynamics Survey(CLDS)in 2016 and 2018 to analyze the impact of migrant workers'return on agricultural specialization.The results show that:firstly,migrant workers'return has significantly promoted farmers'agricultural specialization,and it is still established after various robustness tests.Secondly,the mechanism analysis shows that migrant workers'return realizes the transformation of specialized operation by improving their ability to obtain information and bear risks,as well as by means of agricultural land transfer and agricultural machinery adoption.Thirdly,the analysis of heterogeneity shows that the middle-aged group plays the most significant role in specialized operation among migrant workers of different ages;the relationship between the length of working hours and specialized operation is inverted U-shaped;the job change during working hours is more conducive to the specialization of agricultural management.Fourthly,the scenario analysis shows that the return of migrant workers will further strengthen agricultural specialization in the context of relatively complete home internet access and village cooperative organizations.To promote the modernization of China's agriculture,we should attach importance to the endogenous role of migrant workers heterogeneous human capital.The huge migrant workers in China will be an important supporting force and a social resource that can be mobilized to promote the modernization of Chinese agriculture.

关 键 词：农民工回流 人力资本 传统农业改造 农业专业化经营 

分 类 号：F320.1[经济管理—产业经济]