供需视角下中国老年照料劳动力缺口预测  

Eldercare Labor Shortage in China from the Perspective of Supply and Demand

作　　者：朱雅丽[1] 安巧珍 王林珠[1] ZHU Yali;AN Qiaozhen;WANG Linzhu(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430000,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《老龄科学研究》2023年第7期28-43,共16页Scientific Research on Aging

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国老年照料劳动力需求及应对策略研究”(17BRK019)。

摘　　要：满足日益增长的老年照料需求是积极应对人口老龄化的重要目标之一。利用中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)2018年数据以及联合国《2022年世界人口展望》数据,采用多项logistic模型,探究有照料需求老年人照料供给的影响因素、供给形式及其比例;并基于老年人口健康状况,结合老年照料市场的人员配置比例,比较照料需求与实际供给情况,预测2023—2035年我国老年照料劳动力缺口。研究结果显示:老年照料供给受老年人的年龄、健康状况及经济条件等因素的影响;老年照料供给构成中,家庭照料约占94%,社会照料和无人照料共占6%左右,且老年人的社会照料比例呈现出随年龄增长而增加的趋势。我国老年照料劳动力缺口将从2023年的71.15万人增加至2035年的109.65万人,13年间将增长约54.11%。基于微观数据及供需视角分析我国老年照料劳动力缺口,为我国扩大老年照料的有效供给从而更好地满足日益增长的老年照料需求提供了一个研究视角,也为相关政策和制度的制定提供了有益参考。Meeting the growing demand for elderly care is one of the key objectives of actively responding to population aging.Using data from the 2018 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)and the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022,and on the basis of a multinomial logistic model,this paper explored the influencing factors of the care supply for elders with care needs,forms of supply and their ratios.Then based on the health status of the elderly population and the staffing ratio of the care market,this study compared the care demand and actual supply,and predicted care labour shortage in China from 2023 to 2035.Results show that care supply is affected by factors such as age,health status and economic conditions of older people.In terms of composition,family care accounts for about 94 percent,while social care and unattended care account for a total of about 6 percent,and the proportion of social care for the elderly shows a tendency to increase with age.China's eldercare labour shortage will increase from 711500 in 2023 to 1096500 in 2035,an increase of about 54.11%in 13 years.Analysing this shortage on the basis of microdata and from the perspective of supply and demand provides a research perspective for expanding the effective supply of elderly care in China so as to better meet the growing demand,and also provides a reference for formulation of relevant policies and systems.

关 键 词：老龄化 老年照料 供需视角 劳动力缺口 预测 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]