产业碳排放强度因素分解研究  

Influencing Factors Decomposition Research of Industrial Carbon Emissions Intensity

作　　者：王子龙[1] 王丹丹[1] 邱士雷 WANG Zi-long;WANG Dan-dan;QIU Shi-lei(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2023年第8期21-35,共15页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社科重大项目(20ZDA092)。

摘　　要：利用Laspeyres法,LMDI法和IO-SDA模型分别构建了产业碳排放强度影响因素分解模型,分析了能源结构因素、能耗强度因素、经济结构因素、最终需求因素对国民经济35个产业部门的碳排放总量和碳排放强度的影响规律及贡献大小.结果表明:1)能耗强度是推动二氧化碳排放总量下降的主要因素,致使二氧化碳排放总量上升的主要因素为最终需求的不断上升,能源结构与经济结构对碳排放总量的影响具有波动性.2)推动产业碳排放强度变动的主要因素也是能耗强度,能源结构与经济结构对其影响贡献相对较小.能耗强度下降致使碳排放强度不断降低,能源结构调整使得碳排放强度逐渐趋于负效应方向发展,经济结构调整导致碳排放强度先上升而后趋于下降.3)研究期限内各产业部门碳排放强度均不断降低,年平均降低率在5%左右.能源结构、能耗强度和经济结构对各产业碳排放强度影响波动规律具有一致性,其影响效果均为先逐渐增大再逐渐减小,周期约为6-7年.In this paper,the Laspeyres method,LMDI method and IO-SDA model are used to construct the decomposition model of industrial carbon emission intensity influencing factors.The paper analyzes different influencing factors'law and contribution on carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,including energy structure factor,energy intensity factor,economic structure factor and final demand factor.The results show that:1)Energy intensity is the main factor driving the decline of total carbon dioxide emissions.The main factor that causes the total carbon dioxide emissions to rise is the rising demand,and the impact of energy structure and economic structure on total carbon emissions is fuctuating.2)The main factor driving the change of industrial carbon emission intensity is energy intensity,and the energy structure and economic structure contribute relatively little to its impact.The reduction of energy intensity causes the carbon emission intensity to decrease continuously.The energy structure adjustment makes the carbon emission intensity tend to develop toward the negative effect direction.The economic structure adjustment leads to the carbon emission intensity rising first and then decreasing.3)During the study period,the carbon emission intensity of various industrial sectors continued to decrease,and the annual average reduction rate was around 5%.The energy structure,energy intensity and economic structure have consistent fluctuations in the carbon emission intensity of various industries,and the effects are gradually increased and then gradually reduced,with a period of about 6-7 years.

关 键 词：Laspeyres法 LMDI法 IO-SDA模型 产业碳排放强度 因素分解 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]