城际铁路建设项目全寿命周期成本效益测算  

Life cycle cost-benefit calculation of intercity railway construction project

作　　者：高龙 谢秉磊 宗传苓 张宁 GAO Long;XIE Binglei;ZONG Chuanling;ZHANG Ning(School of Architecture,Harbin Institute of Technology,Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518055,China;Shenzhen State High-Tech Industrial Innovation Center,Shenzhen 518057,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学(深圳)建筑学院,广东深圳518055 [2]深圳国家高技术产业创新中心,广东深圳518057

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2023年第5期66-71,共6页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71974043)。

摘　　要：结合城际铁路建设项目的基本特点,运用全寿命周期成本效益理念进行分析。首先,阐述城际铁路建设项目全寿命周期的基本内涵;然后,建立全寿命周期成本效益模型,并提出各要素的测算方法;最后,以深汕铁路为例进行案例分析。测算结果表明项目具备较好的经济效益,项目收入不仅可以覆盖项目运营成本及项目债务本息,并且全寿命周期存在项目盈余;财务敏感性分析表明工程投资对项目效益影响最大,其次为客运周转量和旅客运价率,建议合理控制项目投资规模、提升客流效益并优化运价方案。研究结果可为城际铁路建设项目投资决策提供一定技术参考。Combined with the basic characteristics of intercity railway construction project,based on the life cycle cost-benefit theory,firstly,the basic connotation of life cycle of intercity railway construction project were proposed.Then,the model and calculation method of life cycle cost-benefit were put forward.Finally,Shenzhen-Shantou Railway project was used for case study.The result indicates that the project has good economic benefits,the project income can not only cover operation costs,principal and interest,further,the life cycle surplus is obtained.The financial sensitivity analysis shows that construction investment has the greatest influence on the project benefit,followed by the passenger turnover quantity and passenger fare rate.It is suggested to reasonably control the project investment scale,improve passenger flow benefit and optimize fare scheme.The research result is expected to provide a technical reference for the investment decision of intercity railway construction project.

关 键 词：城际铁路 建设项目 全寿命周期 成本效益 财务敏感性 工程投资 客运周转量 旅客运价率 

分 类 号：U2-9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]