多机场体系腹地旅客需求预测及经济效益评价——以京津冀机场群为例  

Passenger demand forecast and economic benefit evaluation in hinterland of multi-airport system:take the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport cluster as an example

作　　者：欧阳婧 莫辉辉 刘雪妮 OUYANG Jing;MO Huihui;LIU Xueni(China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航科学技术研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2023年第5期72-80,共9页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171187)。

摘　　要：以多机场体系结构变化引起的腹地旅客需求和经济效益变动情况为研究对象,在综合考虑区域市场需求、地面交通可达性、服务品质等因素的基础上,构建多因素复合空间分析模型。基于高德地图API实时出行数据,对区域内各机场与腹地之间的交通流进行定量分析和预测。借用有无项目对比法思路,构建基于客流变动的区域民航经济效益评价模型,旨在为多机场体系内的机场建设和资源分配提供参考。以京津冀机场群为例,研究结果显示,大兴机场的投运将使京津冀机场格局呈现局部集聚和全局优化并存的局面,双枢纽的功能定位使得大兴与首都机场对北京核心市场的客流吸引力趋于一致。通过显著拓展北京民航市场发展空间,预计当大兴机场年旅客吞吐量达到7200万人次时,累积时间节约总效益将超过500亿元。To research on the hinterland passenger demand and economic benefits caused by the changes of multiple airports structure,a multi-factor spatial analysis model was constructed considering the regional market demand,ground transportation accessibility,service quality and other factors.On the basis of civil aviation passenger flow prediction,and with travel time data of AutoNavi API,a regional economic benefit evaluation model was constructed under the With and Without Method.It aims to provide a reference for airport construction and resource allocation within multi-airport system.Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport cluster as an example,the research results show that the operation of Daxing Airport makes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport cluster present partial agglomeration as well as overall optimization.The functional positioning of international aviation hub makes Daxing and Capital Airport tend to be consistent with the passenger flow attraction of Beijing’s core market.As Daxing has significantly expanded the development space of Beijing’s civil aviation market,it is expected that the cumulative time saving benefit will exceed 50 billion yuan when Daxing’s passenger traffic reaches 72 million per year.

关 键 词：民航 旅客需求预测 时间节约效益 空间分析模型 多机场体系 机场群 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]