武汉城市圈耕地利用变化驱动机制研究  

Driving Mechanism and Policy Implications of Cultivated Land Use Change in Wuhan Metropolitan Area

作　　者：申杨 龚健 李晓丹 王卫雯 陶荣 SHEN Yang;GONG Jian;LI Xiaodan;WANG Weiwen;TAO Rong(College of Management,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730030,China;School of Public Administration,China University of Geoscience(s Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;Key Laboratory of Rule of Law Research,Ministry of Natural Resources,Wuhan 430074,China;College of Geography and Environmental Science,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China;Hubei Institute of Land Resource,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学管理学院,甘肃兰州730030 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]自然资源部法律评价重点实验室,湖北武汉430074 [4]河南大学地理与环境学院,河南开封475004 [5]湖北省国土资源研究院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2023年第8期123-133,共11页China Land Science

基　　金：甘肃农业大学博士项目启动基金(GAU-KYYQD-2022-44);湖北省自然资源厅科技项目(ZRZY2023KJ05)。

摘　　要：研究目的:分析武汉城市圈的耕地利用变化过程并揭示其空间要素驱动机制,据此提出相对应的耕地保护建议。研究方法:变化轨迹法,景观格局指数,贝叶斯网络模型。研究结果:(1)1980—2020年,武汉城市圈的耕地转入与转出的面积差距逐渐缩小,不同时间段耕地减少去向基本保持一致,以耕地转向建设用地和水域为主。(2)1980—2000年,耕地转出过程在空间上表现较为剧烈,耕地转向建设用地呈现集中占用;2000—2020年,耕地转出与转入在空间上表现都较为剧烈,耕地转建设用地呈现破碎化占用,耕地破碎化现象加剧。(3)建设占用是导致武汉城市圈耕地利用变化的首要驱动因素,其次分别是生态占用、政策规划保护力、社会经济影响度,各因素对耕地转换的敏感性分别是12.49%、4.91%、3.11%、1.19%。研究结论:需要多措并举优化耕地空间格局,加强耕地资源保护与利用,促使耕地空间布局集中化、规模化和有序化。The purposes of this paper are to analyze the process of cultivated land use change,to identify the driving mechanisms behind its spatial factors,and to propose corresponding policies for cultivated land protection in Wuhan Metropolitan Area.The methods of change trajectory approach,landscape pattern index and Bayesian Network Model are employed.The results indicate that:1)from 1980 to 2020,the difference between the area of cultivated land transferred into and out of Wuhan Metropolitan Area gradually decreased.Throughout different periods,the reduction in cultivated land primarily involved its conversion to construction land and water areas.2)From 1980 to 2000,the conversion of cultivated land into construction land exhibited significant spatial intensity with concentrated occupation.From 2000 to 2020,the spatial intensity of cultivated land conversion into construction land increased,showing fragmented occupation and intensified fragmentation of cultivated land.3)The primary driving factor behind cultivated land change in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area is urban construction expansion,which is followed by ecological occupation,policy planning and protection,and social and economic impacts,with each factor exhibiting a sensitivity of 12.49%,4.91%,3.11%,and 1.19%to cultivated land conversion,respectively.In conclusion,multiple measures are needed to optimize the spatial pattern of cultivated land,to strengthen the protection and utilization of cultivated land resources,and to promote the centralization,scaling up and orderly spatial layout of cultivated land.

关 键 词：耕地利用变化 驱动机制 贝叶斯网络 武汉城市圈 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]