构建扩大内需的长效机制:收入不平等及其宏观经济效应  

Building a Long-term Mechanism for Expanding Domestic Demand:Income Inequality and Its Macroeconomic Effects

作　　者：薛熠[1] 王韡 徐朝阳[1] XUE Yi;WANG Wei;XU Zhaoyang(School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,100029

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第7期52-68,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大研究专项(20VHQ016);国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD088);国家自然科学基金专项项目(72141301)以及面上项目(72173019);对外经济贸易大学杰出青年学者资助项目(20JQ01)等的联合资助。

摘　　要：本文构建了一个非瓦尔拉斯均衡的宏观经济模型,研究家庭异质性和收入不平等影响我国国内供需失衡的理论机制。根据本文研究,收入不平等造成家庭边际消费倾向的异质性,导致了总需求的不足,经济只能通过净出口达到潜在产出水平,一旦外需不足就会出现生产能力闲置。进一步研究发现,旺盛的外需有助于劳动禀赋较高的家庭提高收入从而进一步拉大收入差距,外需不足则会抑制收入差距,这解释了我国基尼系数的顺周期特性。本文的政策含义是,市场机制无法自动消除严重收入不平等以及由此造成的国内供需失衡现象,必须探索形成抑制不平等对社会总消费负面影响的政策体系、制度框架与社会文化氛围,着力推动构建扩大内需的长效机制。The first priority of building a new pattern of development currently is to come up with a long-term governance mechanism for expanding domestic demand.The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is necessary to make sure that the implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand is integrated with efforts to deepen supply-side structural reform.To achieve this strategic goal,this paper studies the fundamental causes of the domestic demand deficiency issue in China.The consensus in the literature on the causes of the domestic demand deficiency issue in China is income inequality.In particular,according to the principle of diminishing marginal propensity to consume(MPC),which is at the core of the Keynesian theory of effective demand,the MPC of the rich is lower than that of the poor,which implies that income inequality can be a key factor for the domestic demand deficiency issue.A large body of literature provides robust evidence that income inequality exerts a significant impact on consumption.According to the standard growth theory,however,a higher saving rate means a higher growth rate as well as a steady-state income level.Yet,this is not entirely true in China.In fact,the declining consumption rate incurs a domestic imbalance between supply and demand in China.The growth of the Chinese economy is increasingly dependent on foreign demand over time,which implies that changes in the external economic environment become a serious threat to sustained and stable macroeconomic growth in China.Obviously,although the literature that studies consumption rates or saving rates finds that income inequality can reduce consumption,it is not able to establish a direct theoretical link between income inequality and domestic imbalance between supply and demand.In addition,income inequality in China appears to be pro-cyclical and the Gini coefficient is significantly and positively correlated with foreign demand measured by the ratio of net exports to CDP.To account for t

关 键 词：收入不平等 基尼系数 边际消费倾向 产能过剩 扩大内需 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]