“挤入”还是“挤出”:基础设施投资对居民消费的影响  

Crowding-in or Crowding-out:How Infrastructure Investment AffectsHousehold Consumption

作　　者：闫芷毓 袁宇菲[1] 薛熠[1] Yan Zhiyu;Yuan Yufei;Xue Yi

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2023年第7期116-139,共24页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71971063);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(19YB20)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建动态模型刻画居民的消费决策并进行经验估计,识别基础设施投资对居民消费的影响。基于省级宏观数据的分析结果表明,基础设施投资不仅能通过收入渠道间接促进居民消费,还能够通过预期渠道直接促进居民消费,存在显著的“挤入”效应;但在住房供给弹性较低的省份,基础设施投资对居民消费的促进效果较弱,在财富渠道上存在“挤出”效应。基于微观家庭数据的分析发现,在住房供给弹性较低的省份,基础设施投资对房价有较强的推升效应,从而通过影响资产配置显著降低了富裕家庭的消费,这不仅对居民消费产生了负向的财富效应,而且还扩大了财富差距。本文的工作为中国宏观调控政策的相关理论研究提供了经验证据。This paper constructs a dynamic model of household consumption decisions and accordingly designs empirical analyses to identify how infrastructure investment affects private consumption.The estimation results of provincial panel data reveal that infrastructure investment can not only indirectly promote household consumption through the income channel but also directly promote household consumption expansion through the expectations channel,with a significant"crowding-in"effect.However,the effect is significantly weaker in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity,showing the"crowding-out"pattern through the wealth channel.Household survey data provide an explanation for individual heterogeneity.Infrastructure investment has a greater pushing effect on house prices in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity.Rapid house price growth has significant"crowding-out"effects on the consumption of wealthy households.This not only significantly weakens the driving effect of infrastructure investment on aggregate household consumption,but also increases longterm wealth inequality.This paper explains how infrastructure investment affects household consumption and the corresponding role played by house prices,providing empirical evidence for theoretical studies related to macro-regulatory policies in China.

关 键 词：基础设施投资 居民消费 住房供给弹性 宏观调控政策 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F126.1