印俄高度军备依赖关系生成机制探究——基于主动锁定策略的分析  

How India’s Heavy Dependency on Russian Armaments Is Generated?——A Study Based on Proactive Lock-in Tactics

作　　者：魏涵 WEI Han(School of International Studies,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210023)

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院,南京210023

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2023年第5期108-133,159,160,共28页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：2022年国家社会科学基金优秀博士论文项目“印度的军政关系与对外战争行为”(项目编号:22FYB027);2022年江苏省“双创博士”资助项目(项目编号:JSS-CBS20220054);2022年南京大学亚洲研究项目的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：依赖关系可以出现从轻微依赖、中度依赖到高度依赖等不同程度的情景,是否存在供求关系、是否涉及关键资源、能否承担转换成本是判断国家间依赖程度高低的三个标准。印度和俄罗斯之间的军备合作达到了一种高度依赖的关系,这种关系并不是自然产生的,而是伴随着俄罗斯作为资源供应国采取的主动锁定策略生成并得到强化。通过“展示-供应-刺激-捆绑”这一系列主动锁定策略,俄罗斯逐步强化了印度对其军备供应的高度依赖,也使其国防发展模式和作战理念深深烙上了俄罗斯的印记。在军备依赖的强化过程中,印俄关系得到积极巩固和深入发展,但印度的战略灵活性也同时受到了损害,使印度处于机会主义风险中。当前印俄军备贸易过程中的摩擦、国际军备出口市场竞争的加剧、美印军事关系的发展等因素都不同程度地影响着印俄锁定依赖的稳定性。Dependency varies from slight dependency,moderate dependency to heavy dependency.There are three criteria for judging the degree of dependency between countries:whether there exist supply and demand,whether it involves strategic resources,and whether the conversion cost can be borne.Armaments cooperation between India and Russia has reached a stage of heavy dependency that does not arise naturally but is created and reinforced by Russia’s adoption of proactive lock-in tactics as a resource supplier.Through a series of proactive tactics featuring“demonstration-supply-stimulation-binding,”Russia has succeeded in reinforcing India’s heavy dependency on its arms supply,which prompts India’s defense development model and military doctrines to be deeply branded with a strong Russian imprint.The strengthened arms dependency has,on the one hand,proactively consolidated India-Russia relations and,on the other hand,undermined India’s strategic flexibility by dragging India into the risk of opportunism.At present,intensified competition in the international arms export market,arms trade friction between India and Russia,and the development of US-India military relations are playing a more important role in impacting the stability of India-Russia armament dependency.

关 键 词：依赖关系 印俄关系 军备贸易 转换成本 战略灵活性 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] D735.1[政治法律—政治学]