原油价格、进口量与油轮价格相关性实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of the Correlation between Crude Oil Price,Import Volume and Tanker Price

作　　者：许楠楠 周剑[1] XU Nannan;ZHOU Jian(School of economics and management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋经济》2023年第4期21-28,共8页Marine Economy

基　　金：中国海洋传统产业发展研究项目[D-8005-17-000A]。

摘　　要：根据2014年1月至2020年12月全球原油现货实际市场价格、中国原油进口量与中国进口油轮运价指数的月度数据建立多变量VAR模型,通过Johansen协整分析、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应与方差分解等计量方法,实证分析三者之间的相关性。结果表明原油价格与油轮价格两者相互引导,油轮价格一定程度上引导着中国原油进口量的变动,三者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系:原油价格与原油进口量每上涨1%,则油轮价格相应地下降0.416 8%、0.122 4%;原油价格变动对油轮价格的冲击短期内为负,长期为正;原油进口量对油轮价格的冲击则与之相反,两者的贡献率分别为16%和2%。据此,提出密切关注全球原油市场价格变化、建立健全油轮运输价格监测体系等建议。A multivariate VAR model is established based on the monthly data of the actual global crude oil spot market price,China's crude oil import volume and China's imported tanker freight index from January 2014 to December 2020.The Johansen co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition and other measurement methods are adopted.Empirical analysis of the correlation between the three.The results show that crude oil price and tanker price guide each other,and the tanker price leads the change of China's crude oil import volume to some extent.There is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between the three.The impact of crude oil price changes on tanker prices is negative in the short term and positive in the long term,while the impact of crude oil imports on tanker prices is contrary,with the contribution rates of 16% and 2% respectively.Based on this,the paper puts forward some suggestions,such as paying close attention to the global crude oil market price changes and establishing and improving the oil tanker transportation price monitoring system.

关 键 词：原油价格 油轮运价 原油进口量 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易] F12[经济管理—产业经济]