科技创新与旅游业碳排放效率耦合协调发展及动态演化研究  

Research on the Coupling Coordinated Development and Dynamic Evolution of Scientific and Technological Innovation and Carbon Emission Efficiency of Tourism Industry

作　　者：何静[1] 王凯[2] 李志远 邹楠 He Jing;Wang Kai;Li Zhiyuan;Zou Nan(School of Business Administration,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;College of Tourism,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学工商管理学院,上海200062 [2]湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期50-59,共10页Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ30392).

摘　　要：科技创新与旅游业碳排放效率的协同共进是驱动旅游业高质量发展的重要路径.以中国30个省份为研究对象,从系统思维出发构建耦合协调模型,研究2001-2019年科技创新与旅游业碳排放效率耦合协调发展的时空演化特征,并借助空间自相关、空间马尔科夫链等方法对其动态演进趋势进行深层探析.结果表明:(1)科技创新与旅游业碳排放效率的耦合协调度从“基本失调”转向“基本协调”,呈东部>中部>东北部>西部的空间格局;其核密度曲线右拖尾延展收敛现象明显并呈双峰演化格局,离散发展和低水平状态逐渐改善,区域间绝对差异缩小.(2)科技创新与旅游业碳排放效率的耦合协调度具有显著的正向空间自相关特征,局部空间关联类型以高-高集聚型、低-低集聚型为主.(3)耦合协调度的类型状态呈稳态分布且存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,不易实现跨越式提升;类型转移过程受地理背景影响,严重失调类型省份面临低水平固化风险,而高级协调类型省份带动效应不足,基本失调、基本协调类型省份易受严重失调、基本失调类型省份的近邻效应影响而出现发展回落现象.The synergy between scientific and technological innovation and carbon emission efficiency of tourism industry is an important path to drive the high-quality development of tourism industry.Taking 30 provinces in China as the research objects,this paper constructs a coupling coordination model from system thinking to study the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordinated development of scientific and technological innovation and carbon emission efficiency of tourism industry from 2001 to 2019,and then deeply analyzes the dynamic evolution trend with the help of spatial autocorrelation and spatial Markov chain.The results show that:(1)The coupling coordination degree between scientific and technological innovation and carbon emission efficiency of tourism industry has gradually changed from“basic imbalance”to“basic coordination”,showing a spatial distribution pattern of Eastern Area>Central Area>Northeastern Area>Western Area.The right tailing extension and convergence phenomenon of the kernel density curve is obvious and presents a bimodal evolution pattern.The discrete development and low-level state are gradually improved,and the absolute difference between regions is reduced.(2)The coupling coordination degree between scientific and technological innovation and carbon emission efficiency of tourism industry has significant positive spatial autocorrelation characteristics,and H-H type and L-L type are the main local spatial correlation types.(3)The type state is in a steady-state distribution and there is a phenomenon of“club convergence”,which is difficult to achieve leapfrog improvement.In addition,the type transfer process is affected by the geographical background.The severely maladjusted provinces face low-level solidification risk,while the high-level coordinated provinces lack the driving effect,and the basic maladjusted provinces and the basic coordinated provinces are easily affected by the nearest neighbor effect of the severely maladjusted provinces and the basic

关 键 词：科技创新 旅游业碳排放效率 时空耦合 空间马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]