农业人口老龄化对农地配置与种粮决策的影响:来自中国家庭金融调查的证据  

The Impact of Aging Agricultural Population on Farmland Allocation and Grain Production Decision:Evidence from the China Household Finance Survey

作　　者：仇童伟 彭嫦燕 QIU Tongwei;PENG Changyan

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [2]西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心

出　　处：《中国农村观察》2023年第4期129-150,共22页China Rural Survey

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目“农地流转市场化与粮食生产率提升机制研究”(编号:2021M702701);国家社会科学基金后期资助重点项目“中国农地流转市场转型研究”(编号:20FGLA004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中国农业人口老龄化水平已超过40%,且呈现持续上升态势。这将如何影响粮食生产值得关注。本文利用2015年、2017年、2019年和2021年中国家庭金融调查数据考察了农业人口老龄化对农户的农地配置与种粮决策的影响。研究发现,农业人口老龄化提高了农户退出农业生产的可能性,并以农地抛荒和农地转出为主要途径:前者会降低粮食播种面积,后者在农地流转市场化过程中会提高流转农地“非粮化”的概率。进一步证据显示,农业人口老龄化降低了农户的粮食播种面积占比和粮食种植规模。本文还发现,发展农业社会化服务确实激励了农业人口老龄化水平较高的农户继续种粮,但农业社会化服务价格上涨却不利于粮食生产。此外,农业人口老龄化也促使农户的农业经营从利润型转向自给型。本文研究表明,尽管中央政府在遏制农地“非粮化”方面做出了许多努力,但农业人口老龄化诱发的“非粮化”压力仍然存在,亟须从制度设计和组织培育等方面创新粮食安全的微观保障机制。The aging proportion of China's agricultural population has exceeded 40%and is continuing to rise,which raises concerns about its impact on grain production.This paper uses data from the China Household Finance Survey in 2015,2017,2019,and 2021 to examine the impact of aging agricultural population on farmland allocation and grain production decision-making by households.We find that the aging of the agricultural population increases the likelihood of households exiting agricultural production,mainly through abandoning or transferring their farmland.The former reduces the area of land for planting grains,while the latter increases the probability of"non-grainization"use of transferred land in the process of market-oriented land circulation.Further evidence shows that the aging of the agricultural population reduces the proportion and scale of land for planting grains.We also ffind that the development of agricultural socialized services does help households with a high aging proportion of agricultural population continue to grow grain,but the rise in the price of agricultural socialized services is not conducive to grain production.In addition,the aging of the agricultural population has also prompted households to shift their agricultural operations from profit-oriented to self-sufficient types.This paper shows that although the central govermment has made important efforts to curb the"non-grainization"use of farmland,the pressure of non-grain use induced by the aging of the agricultural population still exists,and innovative guarantee mechanisms at the micro level for food security are urgently needed from the perspectives of institutional design and organization cultivation.

关 键 词：粮食生产 农业人口 老龄化 要素配置 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]