财政韧性:概念辨析、研究进展与未来展望  

Advancing Research on Fiscal Resilience:Conceptual Analysis,Current Progress,and Future Prospects

作　　者：林光彬[1] 陶然 Lin Guangbin;Tao Ran(School of Economy,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2023年第4期188-197,共10页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学体系中的国家理论研究”(项目编号:19ZDA057);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国经济发展新常态的内涵、特征及其演变逻辑研究”(项目编号:15JZD011)。

摘　　要：韧性在财政学领域的应用催生出“财政韧性”这一新概念。文章从韧性概念出发,对相关概念进行辨析,并对财政韧性的概念和内涵作出界定,提出财政韧性是一个符合当前国内外环境、用于评价财政系统是否健康运行的指标。但是,目前国内外的相关研究仍存在概念与内涵模糊、测算方法与结果有偏、政策建议不够全面等问题。为推进财政韧性研究进路,文章提出几点未来研究展望:一是从财政制度自身看,财政韧性应分别考察财政收入韧性和财政支出韧性;二是从冲击看,财政韧性作为一个动态演化的概念,需要构建反事实的参照系来捕捉外部冲击对财政韧性的影响;三是从韧性内涵看,财政韧性测度应把握抵抗性、恢复性、适应性和成长性四个方面;四是从财政和经济的源和流的关系看,良好的产业发展战略、合理的财政收支管理结构与有效的政府间层级治理有利于增强事前、事中和事后财政韧性。The application of resilience in the field of finance has given rise to the new concept of fiscal resilience.This article begins by analyzing relevant concepts and then defines the concept and connotation of fiscal resilience.The article argues that fiscal resilience is an indicator used to evaluate the healthy operation of the financial system in line with the current domestic and international environment,and that the academic community should pay attention to it.However,current research on fiscal resilience in China and elsewhere still faces issues such as ambiguous concepts and connotations,biased calculation methods and results,and incomplete policy recommendations.In order to promote research on fiscal resilience,this article suggests several future prospects.Firstly,fiscal resilience should examine both the resilience of fiscal revenues and expenditures from the perspective of the fiscal system itself.Secondly,as a dynamically evolving concept,fiscal resilience needs to construct a counterfactual frame of reference to capture the impact of external shocks.Thirdly,the measurement of fiscal resilience should grasp the four areas of resistance,recovery,adaptability,and growth from the perspective of resilience.Fourthly,a good industrial development strategy,a reasonable fiscal revenue and expenditure management structure,and effective intergovernmental level governance are all conducive to enhancing ex-ante,interim,and ex-post fiscal resilience from the perspective of the relationship between finance and the economy as a source and flow.

关 键 词：韧性 财政韧性 冲击 概念辨析 研究进展 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]