江苏省林业三次产业互动的时变影响  

The Time-varying Effect of the Interaction of the Forestry Primary,Secondary and Tertiary Industries in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：曾杰杰[1,2] 陶宇沁 ZENG Jiejie;TAO Yuqing(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家林业和草原局林产品经济贸易研究中心,南京210037

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2023年第2期125-134,共10页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目(21GLB011)。

摘　　要：基于1996—2018年江苏省林业产业的相关数据,分析林业三次产业的演进特征,构建SVAR模型考量林业三次产业在当期、短期和长期的互动影响。结果表明:在当期,江苏省林业三次产业存在即时的结构性联系;短期看,江苏省林业第一产业对第三产业有显著的互动性正向冲击、第二产业对第一产业也有显著的正向冲击;长期看,林业第二产业与第三产业只存在微弱长期的互动性正向冲击;江苏省林业三次产业对自身的冲击具有中长期的差别性正向影响,其中林业第二产业对自身的冲击最大。因此,林业主管部门应重视对林业第一、第二产业中传统优势产业主产区内企业的转型,特别是价值链的核心环节升级,同时加强林业第一产业的资源优势与林业第三产业的跨产业整合。⑴Background——The growth of the demand for forestry ecological products is an important force to promote the change of the proportion and structure of the forestry primary,secondary and tertiary industries.The composition proportion,service-oriented tendency and interaction effect of the forestry primary,secondary and tertiary industries in Jiangsu Province are important factors to realize the value of ecological products and the high quality development of forestry.⑵Methods——The research hypothesis was put forward on the basis of theoretical analysis.The development of the forestry primary,secondary and tertiary industries in Jiangsu Province was summarized by using the statistical data from 1996 to 2018,the concurrent correlation of the forestry primary,secondary and tertiary industries in Jiangsu Province was analyzed by using the VAR model,then the constraint conditions of structural impact of SVAR model were proposed with reference to the structural dividend theory,and at last the interactive effects of the forestry primary,secondary and tertiary industries in Jiangsu Province both in the short term and long term were analyzed.⑶Results——First,the evolution and development of the forestry primary,secondary and tertiary industries in Jiangsu Province show a significant Kuznets fact and the trend of industrial service.Second,in the current period,the forestry primary,secondary and tertiary industries in Jiangsu Province have immediate structural connections,indicating that the change of external factors such as the increase of demand for ecological products has promoted the process of internal integration of forestry industry.Third,in the short term,the forestry primary industry in Jiangsu Province has a significant mutual positive impact on the forestry tertiary industry,and the forestry secondary industry also has a notable positive impact on the forestry primary industry.Fourth,in the long run,the forestry secondary and tertiary industries in Jiangsu Province have weak positive interaction e

关 键 词：林业三次产业 互动关系 动态响应 江苏 

分 类 号：F326.24[经济管理—产业经济]