碳达峰目标下城市公共交通系统低碳转型路径  

Low-carbon transformation path for urban public transportation system with carbon peak target

作　　者：单肖年 胡颖 寇泷丹 叶倩 万长薪 SHAN Xiao-nian;HU Ying;KOU Long-dan;YE Qian;WAN Chang-xin(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;Department of Urban Transport&Modern Logistics,Transport Planning and Research Institute of Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学,土木与交通学院,南京210024 [2]交通运输部规划研究院,城市交通与现代物流研究所,北京100028

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2023年第3期1-12,共12页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52002113);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20200526);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B220202009)。

摘　　要：大力推进公共交通优先发展是实现城市交通系统双碳目标的关键路径,碳达峰目标下公交系统低碳转型发展尤为突出。本文首先对比分析了两种交通系统碳排放估计方法,其次剖析了北京市公交系统碳排放总量及人均碳排放的历年变化特征,量化分析了我国30个典型城市的公交系统碳排放发展阶段特征。最后设置零驱动、单驱动及双驱动3种情景,基于LEAP模型预测了三种情景下未来30年北京市公交系统总能耗及人均碳排放变化特征,剖析了各种情景下的公交系统减碳潜力,并进一步讨论了其他5个典型城市公交系统多情景下的碳达峰年份时间。研究结果表明,公交系统低碳转型发展需以人均碳排放为特征指标,在双驱动情景下我国典型城市公交系统人均碳排放达峰年份在2023—2026年之间。研究成果为指导城市公共交通系统低碳转型发展提供了参考性思路及实践价值。Promoting the priority development of public transportation is the key path for achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals of the urban transportation system,and the low-carbon transformation and development of the public transportation system under the carbon peak goal is particularly prominent.In this study,we first compared and analyzed two carbon-emission estimation methods for a transportation system.Then,the total carbon emissions and per-capita carbon emissions of Beijing’s public transportation system over the past eight years were analyzed,along with the carbon-emission development stages of the public transportation system in 30 different cities in China.Finally,three scenarios—zero drive,single drive,and dual drive—were established to illustrate the different development modes of the public transportation system.The characteristics of total energy consumption and per-capita carbon emissions of Beijing’s public transportation system in the next 30 years were predicted using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)model,the carbon reduction potential of the public transportation system in different scenarios was analyzed,and the carbon-peak years for five other typical cities in multiple scenarios were estimated.The results indicated that the low-carbon transformation and development of the public transportation system can be characterized by per-capita carbon emissions and that the per-capita carbon emissions of typical urban public transportation systems in China will peak between 2023 and 2026 in the dual-drive scenario.The findings of this study provide references,ideas,and practical guidance for the low-carbon transformation and development of urban public transportation systems.

关 键 词：公共交通 低碳转型 碳达峰 情景分析 LEAP模型 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]