地震崩塌滑坡危险性应急评估模型效果对比——以2022年6月1日M_(W)5.8芦山地震为例  

COMPARISON OF THE EFFECTS OF EARTHQUAKE-TRIGGERED LANDSLIDE EMERGENCY HAZARD ASSESSMENT MODELS:A CASE STUDY OF THE LUSHAN EARTHQUAKE WITH M_(W)5.8 ON JUNE 1,2022

作　　者：马思远 许冲 陈晓利[1] MA Si-yuan;XU Chong;CHEN Xiao-li(Key Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Hazards,Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China;National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China,Beijing 100085,China;Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics,Ministry of Emergency Management of China,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,活动构造与火山重点实验室,北京100029 [2]应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京100085 [3]复合链生自然灾害动力学应急管理部重点实验室,北京100085

出　　处：《地震地质》2023年第4期896-913,共18页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：中国地震局地质研究所基本科研业务专项(IGCEA2202,IGCEA1901);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1501001-1,2018YFC1504703-3)共同资助

摘　　要：震后快速准确获取同震崩塌滑坡的分布范围和评估可能的灾害损失对地震灾害应急救援和安置规划至关重要,2022年M_(W)5.8芦山地震为开展不同评价模型在区域地震崩塌滑坡的快速评估研究提供了宝贵窗口。文中选用基于机器学习方法建立的新一代中国地震滑坡危险性模型(下文称Xu2019模型)和简易Newmark模型进行了2022年M_(W)5.8芦山地震崩塌滑坡快速应急评估研究,基于本次事件的地震滑坡数据库(包括2352处崩塌滑坡,面积为5.51km^(2)),探讨2种模型的准确性和适用性。结果表明,基于Xu2019模型计算得到的崩塌滑坡面积为5.07km^(2),与实际崩塌滑坡面积十分吻合,而基于Newmark模型计算预测的崩塌滑坡面积达21.3km^(2)。从评估结果的空间分布上来看,2种模型预测的高危险区域基本一致,高危险区域基本位于发震断层的上盘。但Xu_(2019)模型对于西北区域(崩塌滑坡集中发育区)的危险性预测明显偏低,而Newmark模型对西南区域的危险性预测则明显偏高。总体而言,2种模型在区域同震崩塌滑坡分布预测及快速评估方面均具有较好的实用价值,但Newmark模型需要输入多项参数,而这些参数本身及人为获取方式均具有不确定性,导致该模型在实际应用中受人为影响因素较大。Earthquake-induced landslides,as an important secondary geological disaster,typically occurring during or shortly after an earthquake,have the characteristics of large quantity and scale,wide distribution,complex mechanism,serious casualties and economic losses,and long-duration post-earthquake effect.Rapidly and accurately obtaining the spatial distribution and potential hazard assessment of coseismic landslide following an earthquake is critical for emergency rescue and resettlement planning.Currently,the most commonly-used coseismic landslide hazard assessment methods include the data-driven machine learning methods and the Newmark method based on mechanics mechanism.The 2022 M_(W)5.8 Lushan earthquake provides a valuable window for us to carry out rapid emergence assessment of earthquake-induced landslides with different evaluation models.In this study,a new generation of China's earthquake landslide hazard model(hereinafter referred to as Xu_(2019)model)and a simplified Newmark model are used to carry out the rapid landslide assessment of Lushan event.The Xu_(2019)model selects 9 earthquake-induced landslide inventories around China as training samples and uses a total of 13 influencing factors such as elevation,relative elevation,slope angle,and aspect,and etc.to generate a near real-time evaluation model for coseismic landslides based on the LR method.The model can rapidly assess coseismic landslides towards a single earthquake event according to the actual PGA distribution.For Newmark model,the cumulative displacement(Dn)is calculated by the critical acceleration(ac)and PGA maps.For the landslide inventory of this earthquake event,we completed the landslide inventory covering the entire affected area based on high-resolution optical satellite images(Planet)with 3m resolution acquired on 6 July 2022.Based on the coseismic landslide inventory including 2352 landslides with an area of 5.51km^(2),the accuracy and applicability of the two models are estimated.The results show that the landslide area calculated

关 键 词：2022年M_(W)5.8芦山地震 地震崩塌滑坡 应急评估 Newmark模型 逻辑回归(LR)模型 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]