运用森林蓄积量换算因子法及灰色预测模型对黑龙江省森林增汇潜力的估测  

Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential in Heilongjang Province Using Forest Stock Conversion Factor and Gray Prediction Model

作　　者：韩旭超 高丹丹 李顺龙[1] Han Xuchao;Gao Dandan;Li Shunlong(Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,P.R.China;Party School of Liaoning Province Party Committee)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,哈尔滨150040 [2]中共辽宁省委党校

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2023年第10期70-73,共4页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572022BM03)。

摘　　要：以全国第三次到第九次森林资源清查数据(共7期)为数据源,以森林碳库总碳储量为评价指标,以天然林、人工林、幼龄林、中龄林、近熟林、成熟林、过熟林、森林蓄积量、森林面积等9项林分因子为森林增汇影响因素,构建评价指标体系;运用灰色预测模型(GM(1,1)模型)对黑龙江省森林蓄积量增量进行预测,采用森林蓄积量换算因子法建立森林蓄积量与碳储量的转换关系,测算黑龙江省森林增汇潜力。结果表明:到2030年,黑龙江省森林新增碳汇369.05 Mt,可抵消同期黑龙江省排放的二氧化碳的11.71%。2030—2060年,黑龙江省新增碳汇197.61 Mt,可为我国实现“碳中和”目标贡献724.57 Mt的二氧化碳减排量。Taking the data from the third to the ninth national forest resource inventory(a total of seven issues)as the data source,using the total carbon stock in the forest carbon pool as the evaluation indicator,and nine forest factors of natural forest,plantation forest,young forest,middle-aged forest,near-mature forest,mature forest,over-mature forest,forest stock,and forest area as the influencing factors of the forest sinks,we constructed a system of evaluation indexes.The gray prediction model(GM(1,1)model)was used to predict the increment of forest stock in Heilongjiang Province,and the forest stock conversion factor method was used to establish the conversion relationship between forest stock and carbon stock,and to measure the potential of forest carbon sink enhancement in Heilongjiang Province.The results show that by 2030,the new carbon sink of Heilongjiang forest will be 369.05 Mt,which could offset 11.71%of the carbon dioxide emitted in Heilongjiang Province during the same period.The 197.61 Mt of new carbon sink will be added between 2030 and 2060,which can contribute 724.57 Mt of CO_(2)emission reduction to the goal of“carbon neutrality”.

关 键 词：森林碳储量 森林增汇 林业经济 森林生态 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学] F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]