新四化(ACES)对中国汽车产业价值链的影响研究——基于汽车后市场规模的发展趋势分析  

Research on the Impact of ACES on the Value Chain of Chinese Automotive Industry——Based on the Analysis of the Development Trend of Automotive AftermarketScale

作　　者：陈钰 朱笛 李飞星 CHEN Yu;ZHU Di;LI Feixing(The Industrial Development Research Center of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Guangdong Industry Polytechnic,Guangzhou510300,China;China Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing Research Institute,Guangzhou 510610,China)

机构地区：[1]广东轻工职业技术学院粤港澳大湾区产业发展研究中心,广东广州510300 [2]工业和信息化部电子第五研究所,广东广州510610

出　　处：《工业技术创新》2023年第4期35-44,共10页Industrial Technology Innovation

基　　金：2021年中国高校产学研创新基金项目“面向多车协同SLAM的关键技术研究”(2021ZYA03005);广州市哲学社会科学发展“十四五”规划2022年度课题(2022GZGJ72);广东省哲学社会科学“十四五”规划2022年度学科共建项目(GD22XGL46)。

摘　　要：在低碳经济的加持下,汽车产业正在进行一场以自动化(autonomous)、互联化(connected)、电动化(electric)、共享化(shared)为导向的新四化(ACES)变革,这一趋势将颠覆整个汽车产业价值链。立足中国汽车市场由增量市场向存量市场过渡这一现状,把握汽车后市场有望成为汽车产业新增长点这一潜力,从中国汽车后市场规模视角,实证研究汽车新四化对中国汽车产业价值链的影响,并构建数学模型,定量分析2030年中国汽车后市场保养、易损件更换、维修和事故修复四个类别的维保销售收入变化。数据分析表明,汽车新四化将降低平均每车维保收入,但随着汽车保有量的增长,2030年中国汽车后市场仍有较大发展空间,电子相关的维保收入将迎来大幅度增长。在汽车新四化背景下,汽车后市场将会成为高速发展的新蓝海,不仅为消费者提供更加智能、便捷、专业和定制化的服务和支持,也为企业提供更多的价值增长点和商机,从而带动整个汽车产业生态系统的优化和升级。With the support of a low-carbon economy,the current automotive industry is undergoing a revolution in autonomous,connected,electric and shared(ACES)orientation.Such an ACES trend has the potentials to significantly change the entire value chain of automotive industry.Based on the current situation of the transition from an incremental market to a stock market in the Chinese automotive market,to grasp the potential of the automotive aftermarket to become a new growth point in the automotive industry,the impact of ACES on the value chain of Chinese automotive industry was empirically studied from the perspective of Chinese automotive aftermarket scale,and a mathematical model was constructed to quantitatively analyze the changes in the sales revenue of four categories in the year 2030,including maintenance,replacement of wearing part,repair,and accident recovery.The analysis results show that the ACES trends will reduce the average aftermarket income per vehicle,but with the growth of the vehicle stock,there is still a lot of room for the development of Chinese automotive aftermarket in the year 2030.The aftermarket income related to the electronics will see a substantial increase.In the context of the ACES trends,the automotive aftermarket will become a rapidly developing new blue ocean,not only providing consumers with more intelligent,convenient,professional and customized services and support,but also providing enterprises with more value growth points and business opportunities,thus driving the optimization and upgrading of the entire automotive industrial ecosystem.

关 键 词：新四化(ACES) 汽车产业 价值链 后市场 自动驾驶汽车(AV) 新能源汽车(NEV) 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]