基于变权重−云模型的岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险评估——以中梁山隧道为例  被引量:3

Risk assessment of water inrush disasters of karst tunnels based on variable weightcloud model:A case study of Zhongliangshan tunnel

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作  者:李慧 魏兴萍[1,2] 刘程 李良鑫 LI Hui;WEI Xingping;LIU Cheng;LI Liangxin(School of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Wetland Science Research in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River,Chongqing 401331,China;College of Computer Software,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区:[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆401331 [2]长江上游湿地科学研究重庆市重点实验室,重庆401331 [3]重庆师范大学计算机软件学院,重庆401331

出  处:《中国岩溶》2023年第3期548-557,572,共11页Carsologica Sinica

基  金:重庆市自然科学基金项目(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0616);国家自然科学基金项目(42107355,41202135);重庆师大学三春湖创新项目(202201465)。

摘  要:针对岩溶隧道涌突水的致险因素的不确定性、复杂性和隧道涌突水风险评价的主观性,以成渝中线中梁山岩溶隧道工程为背景,建立基于正态云模型的隧道涌突水风险评价方法。通过选取地层岩性、地质构造、地表汇水条件、隧道空间位置、地下水循环交替条件作为风险影响因素,构建涌突水风险评估体系;基于正态云模型确定的各影响因子数字特征及变权向量计算综合隶属度,最终判定岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险等级。结果表明:成渝中线中梁山隧道涌突水灾害为“Ⅱ级”与“Ⅴ级”之间,涌突水灾害发生可能性大且危害高,与实际开挖结果一致。文章构建的岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险评估方法,实现了多元决策下的隧道涌突水灾害风险分级客观性,适合岩溶隧道的风险评估,为日后隧道质量控制和寿命评估提供参考。In order to solve the uncertainty and complexity of risk factors and the subjectivity of risk assessment of water inrush disasters in karst tunnels,the risk of water inrush disaster has been scientifically assessed.According to the Zhongliangshan karst tunnel project on the middle route of Chengdu-Chongqing,the study constructed a risk assessment model of water inrush disasters in karst tunnels based on variable weight-cloud model.First of all,referring to the research methods of Wu Xin,Liu Dunwen and others,and consulting professors in the field of geological disasters and engineers from tunnel construction and inspection units,a total of 8 experts determined the grade and classification standard of each influencing factor on water inrush disasters of karst tunnels,and clarified the parameter value of each influencing factor of Zhongliangshan tunnel on the middle route of Chengdu-Chongqing.In this study,five influencing factors were selected to construct an index system of risk assessment of the water inrush in karst tunnels.These five factors include formation lithology(calcium carbonate content in strata and rock structure),geologic structures(water-conducting fault structure,water-blocking fault structure and fold structure),surface catchment conditions,tunnel spatial locations and alternating conditions of groundwater circulation.In addition,the grading standards of water inrush disasters were determined,and accordingly the disasters were divided into five risk levels,low,mild,moderate,high and highest.Firstly,the cloud model was used to determine digital characteristics of the risk level of each index.The diagram of membership cloud of each influencing factor was drawn by MATLAB.The single factor membership degree(μj(x))of each influencing factor was calculated according to parameter values of water inrush disasters in karst tunnels.Secondly,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was used to determine the constant weight.In order to avoid the situation that the constant weight does not change with the state va

关 键 词:正态云模型 变权重 岩溶隧道 综合隶属度 涌突水灾害 

分 类 号:U456[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] U458.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]

 

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