西北地区气象要素时空变化特征及未来趋势评估  

Spatial and Temporal Change Characteristics of Meteorological Factor in Northwest China and Their Future Trend Evaluation

作　　者：陈代明 王亚东 梁君 韩牧原 王洁[2] CHEN Dai-ming;WANG Ya-dong;LIANG Jun(State Energy Shaanxi Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710075)

机构地区：[1]国能陕西水电有限公司,陕西西安710075 [2]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2023年第17期173-177,202,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河北省省级科技计划项目(19275408D);江苏省水利科技项目(2020040);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41877158)。

摘　　要：采取我国西北新疆、甘肃等地38个气象站点1971-2020年的气象资料,采用曼坎德尔检验法对气温进行时空变化特征分析,采用赫斯特指数法对气温的未来变化趋势进行评估,并根据空间变化对该地区气温的时空变化特征进行综合分析。结果表明,整体上来看,整个西北地区气温在研究期间均呈上升趋势。从未来趋势方面看,气温在新疆北部地区也表现出与过去相反的变化趋势,而其他地区都表现出与过去一致性较强。综合上述结果来看,在21世纪西北地区气温总体上可能继续呈现上升趋势,仅有新疆北部将会呈现变冷的趋势。The meteorological data of 38 meteorological stations in Xinjiang,Gansu and other regions in northwest China from 1971 to 2020 were used to analyze the temporal and spatial change characteristics of temperature by the Mann-Kendall test method,and the future change trend of temperature was evaluated by the Hurst index method,and the temporal and spatial changes of temperature in this region were comprehensively analyzed according to the spatial changes.The results showed that overall,the temperature in the entire northwest region showed an increasing trend during the study period.From the perspective of future trend,the temperature in the northern part of Xinjiang also showed the opposite trend to the past,while other regions showed strong consistency with the past.According to the above results,in the 21st century,the temperature most area of Northwest China would continue to increase,only the Northern part of Xinjiang would become colder in the future.

关 键 词：气温 时空变化特征 未来趋势 曼坎德尔检验法 赫斯特指数法 西北地区 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]