产业结构变迁、产业互动与全要素生产率增长——基于动态结构的视角  

Industrial Structure Change,Industrial Interaction and Total Factor Productivity Growth--From the Perspective of Dynamic Structure

作　　者：叶祥松 殷红 YE Xiangsong;YIN Hong(Guangzhou University,Guangzhou,China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院,510006

出　　处：《经济学动态》2023年第6期44-62,共19页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“新一代人工智能驱动中国制造业高质量发展的机制、路径及应对战略研究”(21AJY019);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“粤港澳大湾区推动我国高水平对外开放的机制路径及对策研究”(22JJD790056);国家自然科学基金青年项目“央行‘双边’预期管理的机制设计、行为优化与最优策略研究”(72203053)。

摘　　要：产业结构的变迁与互动决定着经济增长的方式与质量。基于结构变迁模型量化全要素生产率(TFP)的增长来源并厘清产业结构调整对TFP的影响机制,我们考察了产业结构调整与TFP间的动态因果关系与时变效应。结果显示:1999-2020年产业结构服务化对全产业TFP产生显著的正向影响,但工业结构技术化和服务业结构生产化对全产业TFP的影响分别呈现逐期递增与递减;高技术制造业对服务业TFP的驱动作用强于生产性服务业对工业TFP的驱动作用,二者差值总体呈U型波动趋势,其中,批发零售贸易业、交通运输业与金融业对工业TFP的抑制效应尤为显著,软件和信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业、科学研究和技术服务业、房地产业对工业TFP的促进效应较为显著,但房地产业及其关联产业对信贷资源的挤占会造成金融市场扭曲、不利于全产业TFP的提高。现阶段我国工业与服务业互动发展滞后于工业化发展进程,推动经济高质量发展应注重产业间结构与产业内部结构的同步优化,促进服务业与制造业的深度融合发展并逐步向双向驱动转变。The change and interaction of industrial structure determine the mode and quality of economic growth.Based on the structural change model,the growth sources of total factor productivity(TFP)are quantified and the mechanism of the effect of industrial structure adjustment on TFP is clarified.The dynamic causal relationship and time-varying effect between industrial structure adjustment and TFP are investigated.The results show that the ser-vitization of the industrial structure has a significant positive impact on the whole industry TFP from 1999 to 2020,but the impact of the technicalization of industrial structure and the productization of service structure on the whole in-dustry TFP increases and decreases,respectively.The driving effect of high-tech manufacturing on TFP of service in-dustry is stronger than that of producer services on industrial TFP,and the difference between them shows a U-shaped fluctuation trend,in which the wholesale and retail trade,transportation and financial industry have a particularly sig-nificant inhibiting effect on industrial TFP.Software and information technology service industry,leasing and business service industry,scientific research and technology service industry and real estate industry have a significant promo-ting effect on industrial TFP,but the crowding out of credit resources by real estate industry and its related industries causes the distortion of financial market,which is not conducive to the improvement of the whole industry TFP.At the present stage,the interactive development of Chinese industry and service industry lags behind the process of in-dustrial development.In order to promote high-quality economic development,we should pay close attention to the synchronous optimization of inter-industry structure and internal industry structure,promote the deep integration of service industry and manufacturing industry and gradually change to"two-way driving".

关 键 词：产业结构 产业互动 生产性服务业 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]