国际资本流动研究新进展  

The New Progress of Research on International Capital Flows

作　　者：欧明刚[1] 杨佩玮 OU Minggang;YANG Peiwei(China Foreign Affairs University,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际金融研究中心,100037

出　　处：《经济学动态》2023年第6期132-148,共17页Economic Perspectives

摘　　要：国际资本流动一直是学术界、业界和各国金融管理部门关心的重要问题。本文从研究范式、驱动因素、经济影响、政策工具四个方面系统梳理近年来国际资本流动研究的新进展,提出未来可能的研究方向。国际资本流动的研究重点已从净资本流动转向了总资本流动,全球流动性和组合投资得到了更多关注。关于驱动因素与传导机制的研究中,一方面基于传统“推拉”分析框架的实证分析得到细化,另一方面基于全球金融周期理论与风险承担机制的研究正在深化。越来越多的应用微观企业数据和银行数据来分析资本流动对新兴经济体影响的研究显示,相关研究结论因国别、行业与资本流动类型而表现出较强的异质性。管理资本流动的统一政策框架应运而生,在险资本流动已被应用于对资本流动波动规模的预测中。未来研究可重点关注非银行金融机构和组合投资管理者的风险承担行为、美元周期和通货膨胀对资本流动的影响以及加密货币引发的资本流动等问题。The issue of international capital flows has aroused hot discussions both in academics and policymak-ers.This paper provides a comprehensive review of the recent literature on international capital flows since the global financial crisis from the perspectives of research paradigm,driving factors,economic impacts,and policy instruments.This review highlights that the gross capital flows,global liquidity,and portfolio capital are the main research ob-jects.While numerous experimental studies based on the push-pull factors framework have been developed,studies based on the global financial cycle and risk-taking channel of monetary policy are on the rise.Firm-specific and industry-specific data are widely explored to analyze the impact of capital flow on emerging economies,with the effect varying across countries,industries,and types of capital flows.While an integrated policy framework has been estab-lished to deal with capital flows,capital flows at risk is used to forecast the distribution of future capital flows.For further studies,non-bank financial institutions,portfolio capital,and capital flows related to cryptocurrency deserve more attention.At the same time,the impact of high inflation and the US dollar cycle on capital flows cannot be ig-nored.

关 键 词：国际资本流动 总资本流动 全球金融周期 风险承担机制 

分 类 号：F831.5[经济管理—金融学]