税负变化的经济增长效应:基于叙事记录法的实证分析  

THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF TAX CHANGE:AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON NARRATIVE RECORD

作　　者：李戎 张凯强 LI Rong;ZHANG Kaiqiang(China Financial Policy Research Center,School of Finance,Renmin University of China;National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心、财税研究所、财政金融学院,100028 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2023年第7期32-46,共15页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“地方财政政策与地方经济稳定:实证分析与理论机制”(71973143);国家社会科学基金青年项目“近几年减税降费政策效果评估研究”(20CJY058);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(22XNQT01)资助。

摘　　要：本文借鉴Romer&Romer(2010),使用叙事记录法(Narrative Record)识别外生性税负变化,结合SVAR模型分析外生税负变化的经济效应。本文研究发现:(1)外生性税收政策事件使得税收收入占GDP比重增加1个百分点将显著地降低实际GDP 4.2%。这表明减税将有效扩大产出,促进增长。(2)固定资产投资和消费品零售总额受正向税收冲击的影响则分别降低6.4%和4.1%。(3)在加入广义货币供应量之后,研究结果表明,我国货币当局在税收政策收紧时将同时采取紧缩的货币政策,形成了货币与财政政策相互配合的态势。本文的结论将为我国税制结构的调整和完善以及积极财政政策的制定和实施提供参考和建议。Drawing on Romer and Romer(2010),this paper uses the narrative record to measure exogenous tax change and uses the SVAR model to analyze its economic effects.We find that the exogenous tax policy event which increases the proportion of tax revenue on GDP by 1 percentage point will significantly reduce real GDP by 3.84%,indicating that tax reduction will expand output and promote growth.The same exogenous tax policy event will significantly reduce the fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods by 6.0%and 3.9%respectively.After adding in the broad money supply,the results show that China's monetary authorities will adopt a tight monetary policy when tax policy is tightened,forming a situation in which monetary and fiscal policies are mutually compatible.The conclusions of this paper will provide reference and suggestions for the adjustment and improvement of China's tax system.

关 键 词：税收政策 经济增长 外生性税负变化量 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F124