软实力与硬实力关系研究——基于网络分析的实证研究  

Soft-Hard Power Relationship:An Empirical Study

作　　者：胡悦[1] 欧阳睿 Hu Yue;Ray Ou-Yang(Department of Political Science,Tsinghua University;Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies,Tamkang University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学院政治学系,北京100084 [2]台湾淡江大学国际事务与战略研究所,中国新北25137

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2023年第7期27-50,156,157,共26页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目青年项目“突发公共卫生事件互联网政治生态与话语竞争研究”(项目批准号:20ZGC008)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：软实力的概念从界定到实践已有20多年,该概念以各种形式被纳入各国的发展战略。相较于实践层面的应用,学界对软实力与硬实力间存在何种关系这一基础性问题的理论解释和实证研究尚处于止步不前的状态,这在一定程度上影响了人们对国家间掺入了软实力变量而进行博弈的国际关系格局的掌握,也妨碍了对软实力与硬实力发展规律的把握。为回应既有研究不足,作者梳理了经典权力理论和软实力理论的发展与进展,并从中归纳出存在于软实力与硬实力间的三种一般性关系,即软实力直接强化硬实力、软实力间接强化硬实力以及软实力弱化硬实力。针对这些可能存在的因果关系,作者采取政府间国际组织网络的测量方法并以1945—2005年的跨国纵贯数据为基础对假说进行了检验。研究发现,软实力并未如一些理论家所预期的那样对硬实力产生简单的促进作用。软实力和硬实力是驱动一国对外关系往不同方向发展的两种力量。软实力的增强形成了对硬实力的替代作用,也挑战了现有“巧实力”理论对软实力与硬实力正向关系理论的效度,这种关系在稳健性检验中保持了稳定。调节效应模型检验发现,提高软实力对经济因素转化为硬实力具有负向作用,却有助于提升军事因素向硬实力的转化效率。The concept of soft power has been used for more than 20 years and incorporated into many states'development strategies in various forms.In comparison to the practical level,theoretical and empirical research is still underdeveloped.Especially,there has been no consensus on some fundamental issues like the hard-soft power relationship,which to some extent hinders scholars'understanding of the power structure and dynamics in contemporary international relations with high involvement of soft power.To fill this gap,we developed a theoretical framework based on classical power theory and soft power theory,which identifies three possible influences of soft power on hard power:enhancing directly,enhancing indirectly,and weakening.We examined the theoretical inferences with a novel measurement of soft power based on the intergovernmental-organization network on cross-national time-series data from 1945 to 2005.The results rejected the common expectation that soft power directly enhances hard power.Instead,the empirical evidence showed that they pointed to different directions of power development.The substitutive effect of soft power on hard power was statistically robust and theoretically challenged the positive prediction of the two power's relationship by the prevalent"smart power"theory.Further moderation effect models found that increasing soft power had a negative effect on transforming economic factors into hard power but helped improve the efficiency of transforming military factors into hard power.

关 键 词：软实力 软实力与硬实力关系 权力理论 网络分析 政府间国际组织 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]