气象产品的广义联合偏差修正方法及其应用  

Generalized Joint Deviation Correction Method of Regional Climate Model and Its Application

作　　者：公雪婷 李昱[1] 王国庆[2] 张冰瑶 席佳 GONG Xueting;LI Yu;WANG Guoqing;ZHANG Bingyao;XI Jia(College of Hydraulic Engineering,Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Reclaimed Water North Survey,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300222,China;Changjiang Eco-Environmental Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430000,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [3]中水北方勘测设计研究有限责任公司,天津300222 [4]长江生态环保集团有限公司,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《水文》2023年第4期33-38,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(跨界河流多利益主体常态化合作机制研究,52079017,西南河流径流适应性利用与调控,92047302);大连理工大学基本科研业务费项目(DUT21ZD405)。

摘　　要：卫星气象产品、气候模式预测数据通常与地面观测数据存在偏差,为保证数据的可靠性和合理性,需要对其进行偏差校正,但偏差校正过程往往受具体区域气象特征、方法本身假定等因素的影响,导致修正效果不佳。为此,本文提出一种广义联合偏差修正方法,相较于现有研究最常用的单变量QM修正方法以及固定多变量修正顺序的JBC修正方法,该方法充分考虑到流域尺度降水和气温双变量的时空相关性,并结合其对径流的主导作用对变量修正顺序进行动态调整,实现了QM法和JBC法的优势互补。在澜沧江-湄公河流域的应用表明:考虑降水、气温相关性可显著改善降水和温度极值的修正效果,尤其是5、6月份,修正后气象与实测数据的纳什系数提升了0.5以上;考虑气象要素的修正次序显著降低了修正后的降水和温度频率分布及均值偏差;利用修正后的气象数据驱动分布式水文模型时,部分月份的径流模拟精度提升了54.3%。Deviations usually exist between satellite meteorological products and climate model prediction data and ground observation data.In order to ensure the reliability and rationality of the data,it’s necessary to correct the deviation.Affected by specific regional meteorological characteristics,assumptions of the method itself and other factors,the effect of commonly used deviation correction methods are poor.In this paper,a generalized joint deviation correction method was proposed.Compared with the most commonly used single variable QM correction method and the JBC correction method with a fixed multivariable correction order in the existing research,this method fully considers the spatial-temporal correlation of the precipitation and temperature variables at the basin scale,and dynamically adjusts the variable correction order in combination with its leading role in runoff,thus realizing the complementary advantages of QM method and JBC method.The application in the Lancang Mekong River Basin shows that considering the correlation between precipitation and temperature can significantly improve the correction effect of precipitation and temperature extremes,especially in May and June,the Nash coefficient of the corrected meteorological and measured data has increased by more than 0.5;Considering the correction order of meteorological elements,the frequency distribution and mean deviation of precipitation and temperature after correction are significantly reduced;When the modified meteorological data is used to drive the distributed hydrological model,the runoff simulation accuracy in some months is improved by 54.3%.

关 键 词：广义联合偏差校正 COPULA函数 降水-气温相关性 澜沧江-湄公河流域 气候变化 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P33[天文地球—水文科学]