绿色金融、碳减排与金融风险——基于碳减排情景与风险缓释的视角  

Green Finance,Carbon Emission Reduction and Financial Risk-From the Perspective of Carbon Emission Reduction Scenario and Risk Mitigation

作　　者：吴强[1] 唐明知[1] 肖丹然 韦斌杰 Wu Qiang;Tang Mingzhi;Xiao Danran;Wei Binjie

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行南宁中心支行

出　　处：《经济研究参考》2023年第8期45-62,共18页Review of Economic Research

摘　　要：企业碳减排在一定程度上影响企业生产经营,可能造成企业财务困难、违约概率上升,进而引致金融风险。本文以七大行业碳减排成本为研究视角,测算不同行业的碳减排边际成本,以及碳减排责任分配占比;同时,运用动态GMM模型,实证分析在两种碳减排路径(等比例碳减排、按碳减排责任分配碳减排)情景下,碳减排对金融稳定影响的差异;最后,以DID模型实证分析绿色金融缓释银行风险冲击效应。实证结果表明,在实现“双碳”目标的情况下,碳减排对金融风险产生显著的正相关关系;按碳减排责任分配制定的碳减排路径情景对金融风险的冲击小于同比例碳减排路径情景对金融风险的冲击;发展绿色金融后能够在一定程度上缓释碳减排对金融风险的影响。在此基础上,本文提出科学合理制定碳减排路径,推动金融机构强化转型风险管理,协同发展绿色金融、转型金融等政策建议,为实现“双碳”目标提供借鉴。Carbon emission reduction of enterprises will affect the production and operation of enterprises to a certain extent,which may cause financial difficulties,increase the probability of default,and then cause financial risks.Therefore,firstly,this paper takes the carbon emission reduction cost of seven industries as the research perspective,and calculates the marginal cost of carbon emission reduction of different industries and the proportion of carbon emission reduction responsibility allocation.Secondly,the dynamic GMM model is used to empirically analyze the difference of the impact of carbon emission reduction on financial stability under two carbon emission reduction path scenarios of different industries,namely,carbon emission reduction with equal proportion and with the proportion of responsibility allocation.Finally,the DID model is used to empirically analyze the impact effect of green finance on bank risk mitigation.The empirical results show that carbon emission reduction has a significant positive correlation with financial risk under the condition of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The impact of carbon emission reduction path scenario based on responsibility allocation on financial risk is smaller than that of carbon emission reduction path scenario with equal proportion.After developing green finance,the impact of carbon emission reduction on financial risks can be mitigated to a certain extent.On this basis,this paper puts forward policy suggestions such as formulating a scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction path,promoting financial institutions to strengthen transition risk management,and developing green finance and transition finance in a coordinated manner,so as to provide reference for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

关 键 词：碳减排 金融风险 动态GMM模型 DID模型 绿色金融 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]