老龄化速度对中国经济增长的影响——经济要素投入视角的分析  

The Influence of the Speed of Aging on China's Economic Growth-From the Perspective of Economic Factor Input

作　　者：姜德波[1] 赵伟强 Jiang Debo;Zhao Weiqiang

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济研究参考》2023年第8期63-80,共18页Review of Economic Research

基　　金：江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目“人口老龄化对中国经济增长的影响”(No.KYCX22_2092)。

摘　　要：理论上,本文从有效劳动供给、储蓄投资和技术创新三个角度,分析了人口老龄化速度对中国经济增长的影响;实证上,利用2000~2019年中国省际数据,采用系统GMM等多种计量方法分析了不同地区、不同路径下老龄化速度对经济增长的影响。研究发现,通过两种计量方法交叉验证了老龄化速度通过技术创新的中介效应对经济增长产生显著的负面影响,且间接效应达到31%;老龄化速度对经济增长影响存在区域异质性,东部地区老龄化速度对经济增长的负向影响显著增强,弹性值达-0.216。在未来相当长的一段时间内,中国因人口惯性将保持快速老龄化状态,因此,需要更多地依靠经济政策来减弱老龄化速度对经济带来的负面冲击作用。This paper theoretically analyzes the effect of the speed of aging on China's economic growth from three perspectives:effective labor supply,savings and investment,and technological innovation.Based on the interprovincial data of China from 2000 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the speed of aging on economic growth in different regions and different paths by using systematic GMM and other measurement methods.The two measurement methods cross-verify that the speed of aging has a significant negative impact on economic growth through the intermediary effect of technological innovation,and the indirect effect reaches 31%.There is regional heterogeneity in the effect of the speed of aging on economic growth,and its negative effect on economic growth in eastern China is significantly enhanced,with an elasticity value of-0.216.In the future for a long period of time,China will maintain a rapid aging state due to population inertia,so it needs to rely more on economic policies to make up for the impact of the speed of aging on the economy.

关 键 词：老龄化速度 经济增长 经济要素投入 技术创新 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]