货币政策、房企供给结构与房地产长效机制——基于包含异质性房企的DSGE模拟研究  

Monetary Policy,Housing Enterprise Supply Structure and Real Estate Long-Term Mechanism——Based on DSGE Simulation Research with Heterogeneous Housing Enterprises

作　　者：王先柱 谷元超 葛梦圆 WANG Xianzhu;GU Yuanchao;GE Mengyuan(School of Business,Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan 243032;Bank of Communications Head Office,Shanghai 200120)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学商学院,马鞍山243032 [2]交通银行总行,上海200120

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2023年第6期1516-1535,共20页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974003)资助课题。

摘　　要：文章研究发现,在当前房地产市场政策调控背景下,房企供给结构逐步形成了“船大好挡浪”的供给侧垄断格局.具体而言,文章通过构建包含异质性房企的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了货币政策调控对房地产供给结构均衡的影响.结果发现:紧缩性货币政策调控,促使中小型房企产出下降,大型房企产出、市占率、垄断程度提升;市场垄断程度越高,大型房地产企业对货币政策调控的反应越小,中小型房地产企业的反应越大,导致房地产市场供给结构出现失衡,反向弱化了政策调控效应.据此,为稳定房地产市场,应加强房地产市场“供需兼顾”的调控思路,加大对中小型房地产企业政策支持力度,加快大型房地产企业创新发展与转型升级,完善房地产市场调控长效机制.This paper finds that under the background of the current real estate market policy regulation,the supply structure of real estate enterprises has gradually formed the supply side monopoly pattern of "Big boats are better against the waves".Specifically,this paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy regulation on the equilibrium of real estate supply structure by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including heterogeneous real estate enterprises.The results show that the tight monetary policy regulation causes the output of small and mediumsized real estate enterprises to decline,while the output,market share and monopoly degree of large real estate enterprises to increase.The higher the degree of market monopoly,the smaller the response of large real estate enterprises to monetary policy regulation,and the larger the response of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises,resulting in the imbalance of supply structure in the real estate market,which in turn weakens the effect of policy regulation.Therefore,in order to stabilize the real estate market,we should strengthen the regulation idea of "balancing supply and demand" in the real estate market,increase policy support for small and mediumsized real estate enterprises,accelerate the innovative development,transformation and upgrading of large real estate enterprises,and improve the long-term mechanism of real estate market regulation.

关 键 词：异质性房企 货币政策 房地产供给结构失衡 动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F299.23