数字贸易与贸易高质量发展:数字红利抑或数字陷阱  

Digital Trade and High Quality Development of Trade: Digital Dividend or Digital Trap

作　　者：朱为利 刘红[1] ZHU Wei-li;LIU Hong(School of International Economics and Politics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际经济政治学院,沈阳110036

出　　处：《商业研究》2023年第4期47-55,共9页Commercial Research

基　　金：2023年度辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目(重点攻关项目)“日本新一轮蓄电池产业战略调整对中国蓄电池产业发展的影响及中国对策”。

摘　　要：数字贸易作为数字经济背景下一种新型贸易模式及新业态,能否助推中国摆脱贸易“大而不强”的困境,发挥数字红利进而促进贸易高质量发展有待验证。本文使用中国30个省份2006-2020年面板数据构建实证模型,探究数字贸易对贸易高质量发展的影响效应及作用机理,并进一步考察了市场化程度的调节效应。研究发现:数字贸易能够有效推动贸易高质量发展且产业结构优化升级是其重要传导路径;其促进效果呈现自贸区>非自贸区,中部>东部>西部,数字基础设施较好地区>数字基础设施一般地区的特征;进一步分析发现,数字贸易对贸易高质量发展的影响存在市场化程度的正向边际效应递增的门槛效应;稳健性检验进一步提升了主效应结果有效性。基于此,应不断创新发展数字贸易,使其成为贸易高质量发展新动能,深化市场化改革,为数字贸易更好驱动贸易高质量发展营造良好的制度环境。As a new trade mode and new business form under the background of digital economy,whether digital trade can help to get rid of the“big but not strong”dilemma of China’s trade,and play a digital dividend to promote high-quality trade development remains to be verified.Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020,this paper constructs an empirical model to explore the impact and mechanism of digital trade on high-quality trade development,and further examines the regulatory effect of marketization.The research finds that digital trade can effectively promote the high-quality development of trade and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is an important transmission path;All the heterogeneity tests are consistent with the main effect results.The promotion effect is characterized by free trade zone>non free trade zone,central>eastern>western,better digital infrastructure region>general digital infrastructure region;It is further found that the impact of digital trade on the high-quality development of trade has a threshold effect of increasing the positive marginal effect of the degree of marketization;Robustness test further improves the validity of main effect results.Based on this,we should constantly innovate and develop digital trade to make it a new driving force for high-quality trade development,and deepen market-oriented reform to create a good institutional environment for digital trade to better drive high-quality trade development.

关 键 词：数字贸易 市场化程度 贸易高质量发展 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]