碳排放空间差异的影响因素:计量识别与政策含义  

FactorsInfluencing the Spatial Variation of Carbon Emissions:Measurement Identification and Policy Implications

作　　者：张恩英[1] 孟凡军 ZHANG En-ying;MENG fan-jun(School of Economics,Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin 150028,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学经济学院,哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《商业研究》2023年第4期103-114,共12页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“畅通国内大循环视域下居民消费潜力的多维测度研究”,项目编号:21BTJ061。

摘　　要：优化能源消耗结构,实现工业低碳发展,是实现双碳目标的必由之路。本文运用IPCC方法核算中国各地区2005-2020年的工业二氧化碳排放量,并利用Kaya-LMDI模型将工业二氧化碳排放分解为能源结构、工业能源强度、工业经济规模和工业从业人员规模四种驱动因素。在此基础上,采用STIRPAT模型分析工业碳排放驱动因素在不同经济地区影响作用的差异。研究发现:目前中国工业二氧化碳减排效果显著,但仍存在较大的空间差异,碳排放在地理分布上集中于华东与华南地区,存在不均衡性,其他地区也存在协同化或多极化的碳排放格局;且各因素作用效果差异明显,工业能源强度对碳排放具有显著抑制作用,工业经济规模随着经济的高质量发展将逐渐实现对碳排放的脱钩效应,能源结构优化程度存在空间异质性,结构性减排将是未来的主要减排方式;提高能源消耗技术水平、推动能源结构体系的低碳转型是未来协同经济高质量发展实现“碳达峰”的主要路径。Optimizing the structure of energy consumption and achieving low-carbon industrial development is the only way to achieve the“Carbon peaking and Carbon neutrality Goals”.In this study,the IPCC carbon emission accounting method is used to calculate industrial CO_(2) emissions from 2005 to 2020 in various regions of China.the Kaya-LMDI factor decomposition model is used to decompose industrial carbon dioxide emissions into four driving factors:energy structure,industrial energy intensity,industrial economic scale and industrial workforce size,and on this basis,the STIRPAT model is used to analyze the differences in the role of industrial carbon emission drivers in influencing different economic regions.According to the empirical results,the effect of industrial carbon dioxide emission reduction in China is significant,but there are still large spatial differences,and the geographical distribution of carbon emissions is concentrated in East China and South China,and there are unevenness,and there are synergistic or multi-polar carbon emission patterns in other regions.There is spatial heterogeneity in the degree of optimization of energy structure,and structural emission reduction will be the main way to reduce emissions in the future;improving the technology level of energy consumption and promoting the low-carbon transformation of energy structure system are the main paths to achieve“Carbon peak”with high-quality economic development in the future.

关 键 词：CO_(2)减排 能源消耗结构 因素分解模型 STIRPAT模型 空间差异 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]