气候变化驱动湖泊快速变暖和热浪增加  

Climate change drives rapid warming and increasing heatwaves of lakes

作　　者：王溪雯 施坤 张运林 秦伯强 张毅博 王玮佳 R.Iestyn Woolway 朴世龙 Erik Jeppesen Xiwen Wang;Kun Shi;Yunlin Zhang;Boqiang Qin;Yibo Zhang;Weijia Wang;R.Iestyn Woolway;Shilong Piao;Erik Jeppesen(Taihu Laboratory for Lake Ecosystem Research,State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education),College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Nanjing,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 211135,China;School of Ocean Sciences,Bangor University,Menai Bridge,Anglesey LL572DG,UK;Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Department of Ecoscience,Aarhus University,Aarhus C 8000,Denmark;Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research,Beijing 100039,China;Limnology Laboratory,Centre for Ecosystem Research and Implementation(EKOSAM),Department of Biological Sciences,Middle East Technical University,Ankara 06800,Turkey;Institute of Marine Sciences,Middle East Technical University,Erdeneli-Mersin 33731,Turkey)

机构地区：[1]Taihu Laboratory for Lake Ecosystem Research,State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China [2]Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education),College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [4]College of Nanjing,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 211135,China [5]School of Ocean Sciences,Bangor University,Menai Bridge,Anglesey LL572DG,UK [6]Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China [7]Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [8]Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [9]Department of Ecoscience,Aarhus University,Aarhus C 8000,Denmark [10]Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research,Beijing 100039,China [11]Limnology Laboratory,Centre for Ecosystem Research and Implementation(EKOSAM),Department of Biological Sciences,Middle East Technical University,Ankara 06800,Turkey [12]Institute of Marine Sciences,Middle East Technical University,Erdeneli-Mersin 33731,Turkey

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2023年第14期1574-1584,M0004,共12页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U22A20561 and 41922005);the Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0202);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3204100);the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences Foundation(E1SL002);supported by the Tübitak Program BIDEB2232(Project 118C250);supported by a UK Research and Innovation(UKRI)Natural Environment Research Council(NERC)Independent Research Fellowship(NE/T011246/1)。

摘　　要：气候变化导致的湖泊表层水体变暖和热浪增加可能严重威胁湖泊生态系统.由于大尺度模拟时,湖泊模型精度受限,故对湖泊水温变化的准确量化依然存在不确定性.本研究以中国湖泊为例,采用了一种耦合卫星观测水温和湖泊物理模型的方法模拟了1980-2100年间的水温,并探索了水温在多方面的变化.研究发现1980-2021年间中国湖泊表层水温以0.11℃/10a的速率上升,约为使用单独湖泊模型模拟结果的一半.湖泊水温在不同季节、不同地区的非对称增温导致水温的春夏季季节性在中国东部平原湖泊减弱,在高原湖泊增强.伴随湖泊水温的长期上升趋势,湖泊热浪的持续时间平均每10年延长7.7天.在温室气体高排放情景下,21世纪末湖泊表层水温的气候态年均值相比历史时期将增加2.2℃热浪的年持续时间将增加197天.湖泊物理环境的剧变意味着湖泊将面临严重的人类活动压力,这会进一步威胁水生生态系统的生物多样性和人类健康.Climate change could seriously threaten global lake ecosystems by warming lake surface water and increasing the occurrence of lake heatwaves.Yet,there are great uncertainties in quantifying lake temperature changes globally due to a lack of accurate large-scale model simulations.Here,we integrated satellite observations and a numerical model to improve lake temperature modeling and explore the multifaceted characteristics of trends in surface temperatures and lake heatwave occurrence in Chinese lakes from 1980 to 2100.Our model-data integration approach revealed that the lake surface waters have warmed at a rate of 0.11℃10a~(-1)during the period 1980-2021,being only half of the pure model-based estimate.Moreover,our analysis suggested that an asymmetric seasonal warming rate has led to a reduced temperature seasonality in eastern plain lakes but an amplified one in alpine lakes.The durations of lake heatwaves have also increased at a rate of 7.7 d 10a~(-1).Under the high-greenhouse-gasemission scenario,lake surface temperature and lake heatwave duration were projected to increase by2.2℃and 197 d at the end of the 21 st century,respectively,Such drastic changes would worsen the environmental conditions of lakes subjected to high and increasing anthropogenic pressures,posing great threats to aquatic biodiversity and human health.

关 键 词：表层水温 物理环境 速率上升 高原湖泊 气候变化 湖泊生态系统 卫星观测 物理模型 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P343.3