新疆人口转变与发展--回应西方有关新疆人口“种族灭绝”谬论  

Demographic Transition and Population Development in Xinjiang:Responding to Western fallacy about“Genocide”in Xinjiang’s Population

作　　者：李建新[1] 秋丽雅 LI Jian-xin;QIU Li-ya(Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《西北人口》2023年第5期1-13,共13页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国人口长期均衡发展关键问题研究”(22JJD840001)。

摘　　要：以回应西方学者AdrianZenz有关新疆人口“种族灭绝”谬论为例,展现如何有效揭露和反驳西方对我国民族地区发展成就和政策的污蔑。从学术立场出发,根据新疆人口普查资料、统计年鉴和实地调研材料,全面描述分析新疆人口转变及发展;应用人口学理论和方法,揭露和批判“种族灭绝”谬论的知识和逻辑错误。研究结果表明新疆人口变化符合一般人口转变规律,伴随着新疆社会经济发展、制度法规落实、婚育观念改变,新疆人口生育水平必然会不断下降。西方对新疆人口发展的谬论无视人类人口转变规律、无视影响生育水平下降的多重因素、混淆人口学统计指标、错误使用人口预测中的重要参数等,无论是在问题预设、观点论证上还是在结论上都完全不能成立。西方对我国民族地区发展成就和政策的污蔑多为三段论式的“套路”:站在“意识形态”的制高点上,从“有罪推定”假设出发;在这个假设下选择性地收集“证据”和“材料”;最后对片面的“证据”进行错误的使用和解读,最终证明得出他们预先设定的结论。对新疆人口发展成就的展现、对“种族灭绝”谬论的彻底批判,有助于纠正国际社会对中国、对新疆的“偏见”,具有积极正面的现实意义;全面解释社会经济迅速发展期,新疆人口生育模式急剧变化引起的人口时期指标异常现象,对扩展和完善边疆民族地区的人口转变理论具有重要的学术意义。Using the example of responding to Western scholar Adrian Zenz’s fallacious claims of“genocide”in Xin⁃jiang,this study demonstrates how to effectively expose and refute Western allegations against the developmental achievements and policies in China’s ethnic regions.From an academic perspective,using data from the Xinjiang pop⁃ulation census,statistical yearbooks,and field research materials,this study comprehensively describes and analyzes the demographic Transition and development in Xinjiang.Applying principles and methodologies from demography,it uncovers and critiques the knowledge and logical errors behind the“genocide”fallacy.The results indicate that the transition in Xinjiang’s population conform to general demographic patterns.Alongside the socioeconomic development of Xinjiang,the implementation of institutional regulations,and shifts in marriage and fertility norms,the fertility rates in Xinjiang population are inevitably declining.The Western allegations about Xinjiang’s population development ignore the fundamental principles of demographic transitions,overlook the multifaceted factors affecting declining fer⁃tility rates,manipulate demographic statistical indicators,and incorrectly employ critical parameters in population pro⁃jections.These allegations,whether in their problem formulation,argumentation,or conclusions,are fundamentally unfounded.Western allegations against the development achievements and policies in China’s ethnic regions typically follow a three-step“template”.They start from an ideological standpoint,assuming guilt,then selectively collect“evi⁃dence”and“materials”to support this assumption.Finally,they incorrectly use and interpret one-sided“evidence”to confirm their preconceived conclusions.The analysis of Xinjiang’s population development and the exposure of the“genocide”fallacy are instrumental in correcting international biases against China and Xinjiang,holding significant practical value.Moreover,we provide a valuable explan

关 键 词：新疆 人口转变 总和生育率 队列指标 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]